Shadaw, Artistic & Regular All At Bigger Than 20/1

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Camelot Big Unders, False Favorite, Value Elsewhere Around It.

Decent renewal of the 2000 Guineas this season that should prove up to standard on exposed form and scope for more amongst the major contenders.

The first major factor is the market domination of Camelot from the O'Brien yard who is a short 6/4 fav early. We will state clearly we feel the depth out of his Racing Post Trophy win does look questionable despite being visually impressive that day. As a 6/4 chance we are going to consider this a big value betting race with plenty of value to be had by betting around it. For layers Camelot is a classic excellent value LAY bet proposition in our eyes.

The one that makes the most appeal to us is the very lightly raced Dansili colt Top Offer who only faced the started once as a 2yo when annexing a 7f maiden at Newbury. He won going away by 3.5l that day after being waited with towards the rear early. After being given his head 2f out he closed with big pars to lead clearly before the 1f marker and continue to run away from them. Visually you will struggle to find a better style of deep stretch horse who quickens in an instant and puts the to the sword, also remembering that 2nd and 3rd home btn 3.5l and 7l both raced on pace it adds even more merit, numerous form refs suggests G1 level on the make. On top of that he has the most scope for more being so lightly raced. Top Offer is the one to beat for us.

O'Brien's other entry is Power, the Oasis Dream colt who was super consistent last season winning at G1 level over 7f in yielding to soft ground, either side of that he was btn 0.5l by Parish Hall and La Collina also at G1 level finishing 2nd each time. He is the proven class runner but may lack scope and may even prefer a sharper 7f test, pedigree suggests the same.

In for 3rd we lean towards the French raider Abtaal. A real USA pedigree by Rock Hard Ten out of a Valid Appeal mare does go some way towards explaining his affinity for rain effected ground as he showed at his 3rd career start annexing a G3 race at Saint-Cloud by a good space over proven G1 winner French Fifteen (also engaged here),extra merit was added to the form out of that race with the well regarded Galileo colt Maradini back in 4th. He has also won by a big space on very soft ground the start prior adding further confidence to his ability to handle the expected going at Newmarket on Saturday. Being by Rock Hard Ten he will stay this sort of trip all day. Sure to also have come on since spelling.

Bronterre has to be included in the mix after his wide margin win over Justineo backed up by his close up 4th to Parish Hall 2 starts ago, being out of a Royal Academy mare there is every chance he will be perfectly suited to the extra 1f now as a 3yo. The value PLACE contender.

Born To Sea also has to be included in the top 5 as a 1/2 to so many good types including Sea The Stars and Galileo. Not many horses are capable of winning black type on debut as this one did annexing a Listed race at The Curragh over a potentially unsuitable 6f trip on yielding to soft ground. The freakishness and class of that performance was emphasized next time when 2nd to Nephrite at G1 level in a race that has since worked out very well. Considering it was lame post race we have a valid excuse to forgive it not staying on after hitting the front and looking the winner 1f out.

Top 5 rated contenders in order are .....
1st Top Offer
2nd Power
3rd Abtaal
4th Bronterre
5th Born To Sea

Betting Advice

Win Betting - enough depth in the prices to back all of the top 3 chances.

Top Offer - 4 units @ 17.00
Power - 3 units @ 15.00
Abtaal - 3 units @ 9.60

Place Betting - Top Offer clearly the one to be supporting as the value top elect in the PLACE market

Top Offer - 5 units @ 4.60+

Lay Betting - clearly stated in the write up that Camelot is a big time false favorite, being bet at 2.90 on Betfair is still big unders compared to the bookies price of generally 6/4.

Camelot - Lay to risk 10 units @ 2.90

Exotic Betting - play your favorite exotic bets around the top 5 listed above in order being Numbers 17,11,1,4,3.

French Raider Meandre Suited By Conditions

A total of 8 will face the judge in this very strong renewal of The Jockey Club Stakes including a very strong bunch of 6 potentially high class staying 4yos most of which have good scope to train on from very impressive or promising 3yo campaigns. Three of these 4yos shape as the major seen chances in the form of Meandre, Masked Marvel & Sadeek's Song.

The unknown quantity is surely the superbly bred Sadeek's Song who is by Kingmambo out of a very high class Sadler's Wells mare New Morning who notched up wins over 2004 Derby hero North Light and then a close 2nd to Alexander Goldrun in G1 company towards the end of her career. Sadeek's Song showed signs of being high class at its 2nd career start when it came from last to win going away by 5l over a shorter unsuitable trip widening the margin over the last 1/2f, 2 starts later a win over Colombian facing 12f confirmed that thought. Numerous form lines out of both wins suggest the scope to be clearly above a G2 level 12f horse, if it has trained on which is very likely being so lightly raced it is the one that has to be given most respect as an unknown quantity.

The one most suited and proven class of the race is the French raider from the Fabre yard Meandre. Need to go on its win 3 starts ago over 12f in Good to soft at Longchamp knocking off a high class field in the Grand Prix De Paris, that race just oozes so many high class G1 form refs through the beaten brigade it has to be given big respect as the best formline under the conditions of this race. Meandre is clearly the one to beat for us.

The other one that can figure as the only other seen winning chance is Masked Marvel the St Leger winner of last season over Brown Panther and co. The query for us with Masked Marvel is the distance, even though it has won over 11f and 13f in Listed & G3 company we feel the peak level it needs to hit to win vs the best of these is only achieved over the 14-15f but still it is a high class colt who is proven vs G1 quality stayer so it must be respected.

1st Meandre - rated price 3.40
2nd Sadeek's Song - rated price 5.50
3rd Masked Marvel - rated price 5.70