From the Horses Mouth

French Saturday Preview Including Two Group 2 and One Group 1 Races

Saturday 3 October 2009

1:35 Longchamp (FR)
QATAR PRIX CHAUDENAY (GROUP 2) (3YO)(3yo) Winner £71,942
Good 1m7f Number of runners: 6

Shapes as a below par race for G2 status on exposed form. Leaning is towards the lightly raced Aizavoski who comes into this having its 6th career start stretching out to 1m7f for the 1st time, has only won 1 from 5 starts but keeps improving each start, last start finished 1.3l 3rd to the proven Group 1 winner Cavalryman at Longchamp over 12f in Group 2 company, likely to take sit tracking an even to solid tempo with the run of the race, some will query its ability to stay this trip but last start was forced to do all the work on the front end then battled on strong in deep stretch not shirking the task, potentially has the most scope for further improvement out of these, very well bred by leading German sire Monsun out of the Alzao mare Arlesienne who is also the dam of the smart type Altamira who is also trained by E Lellouche, on exposed form looks capable on Group 2 company whilst the rest struggle to reach that level on exposed form.

WINNER: AIZAVOSKI (1), value at 3/1 or 4.00
2nd: MANIGHAR
3rd: CLAREMONT

2:40 Longchamp (FR)
TOTAL PRIX DE LA FORET (GROUP 1) (3YO+) Winner £138,689
Good 7f Number of runners: 14

In terms of overall class there only looks to be 3 horses in this field capable of reaching true Group 1 level and one of them simply stands head and shoulders above the rest, that is the proven top class Anabaa mare Goldikova, a winner 3 from 4 this season all at Group 1 level she is absolutely flying at present including bolting in last start over 8f at Deauville by a big 6l*5l margin in the Jacques Le Marois on a good track, 2nd and 3rd home that day namely Aqlaam (btn 6l) and Virtual (btn 11l) totally frank the form suggesting she is currently as a minimum 2 levels above normal Group 1 level, Aqlaam came out next start and won in Group 1 company on this track defeating Famous Name and the start prior was a high merit Group 2 winner, Virtual finished 4l 3rd to Aqlaam in that same Group 1 at Longchamp at its next start holding a similar margin totally franking the form of Goldikova and the start prior was only 5l shy of Vision D'Etat in Group 1 company and 2 starts prior was a Group 1 winner over 8f at Newbury when annexing the Lockinge Stakes holding sway over Alexandros in soft going, the only horse that has any hope of lowering the colours of Goldikova here is the Brazilian bred 3yo filly Opera Comica who last start annexed a Grade 3 race at Gavea in Brazil by 6.5l defeating Inchtallion 2nd who at its start prior was only 0.5l 3rd to Talenta in 2yo Grade 1 company, if that form stands up then Opera Comica will be fighting out 2nd along with Border Patrol who is 4 from 4 this term. Simply put Goldikova has this totally at its mercy on the way to another Breeders Cup showdown in the near future, she also looks a special for whatever she contests at The Breeders Cup!

WINNER: GOLDIKOVA (4), currently quoted 4/9on or 1.44 with bookmakers, anything better than 1.60 is value.
2nd: OPERA COMICA, as a 20/1 chance this may be the best bet if backed for a place here at 4/1 or around that mark when considering the slight lack of value around the short price of Goldikova
3rd: BORDER PATROL

3:15 Longchamp (FR)
QATAR PRIX DE ROYALLIEU (GROUP 2) (3YO+ FILLIES & MARES) Winner £71,942
Good 1m4f110y Number of runners: 7

A small but high class field of 7 runners greets us in this above par Group 2 event, 4 of them look capable of winning in this grade making of a strong form race for future reference, the decisive factor for us is the form that exists around the high class Stacelita and that makes us lean towards Plumania on top here, last start Plumania chased home the high class pair of Dar Re Mi and Stacelita to finish 3rd btn 1.5l over 12f in the Group 1 Qatar Prix Vermeille, she was still making up minor ground on the first 2 close home suggesting the extra 1/2f here will be right up her alley, that form reference shapes as the strongest exposed form reference in the race and with minor scope for more she is in this up to her ears, put either Stacelita or Dar Re Mi in this race with an extra 6lbs and they would both be served up as short priced favorites, the major queries lie around the John Gosden trained Charity Belle, a last start winner at Deauville in Group 3 company when having her 4th career start, she has good scope for further improvement here and is very well bred by Empire Maker out of the high class A P Indy mare Sweet Charity, also in the mix is the undefeated Selkirk filly Daryakan who was a Listed winner last time out at Chantilly over Burn The Breeze (also engaged here), these 3 do look well up to winning in Group 2 company and with Burn The Breeze also pressing it makes for a high class Group 2 affair, slight leaning though as stated is towards Plumania who is proven over track, distance and going and loses nothing on breeding being by Anabaa out of Rainbow Quest mare Featherquest who is also the dam of Group 2 winning Singspiel mare of 2008 Balladuese who won the G2 Prix De Royallieu over 13f (interestingly Dar Re Mi finished 3rd behind Balladuese in that contest) on this track suggesting Plumania will have no problems over the slightly longer trip here compared to what she encountered when chasing home Dar Re Mi and Stacelita last start.

WINNER: PLUMANIA (1), value at 3.70 or 11/4
2nd: CHARITY BELLE
3rd: DARYAKANA

MORE FRENCH GROUP RACES FOR SAT AND SUN PREVIEWED SOON INCLUDING THE ARC

UK Royal Ascot Friday (Day 4) Preview

Confidence High For Albany Stakes Plunge (2.30 Ascot)

A big field of 22 runners in engaged for the first race (2.30) on the Ascot card on Friday.

Juvenile fillies go 6f in a battle of sustained speed and the USA combination of Ward and Velazquez have their "best chance" engaged in the form of the undefeated juvenile Aegean, last start he took a G3 5f contest by 1.2l at Churchill Downs in what shapes as a very strong form race over the wide margin winner earlier this week Jealous Again, the form is well and truly franked from numerous angles. The subsequent form out of that race suggests we may well be looking at a G1 prospect in the future, if so she will eat this lot up in what shapes as a fairly average race for G2 quality.

There is one with big scope for improvement who may test Aegean in the form of the Invincible Spirit filly She's A Character, she closed with massive pars over 6f at Doncaster to win on debut by a widening 5l margin over some very well bred speed pedigrees, her racing style will be totally suited over the 6f stiff test here and she has the big scope.

We can back both of these for a result across the race.

Aegean - 6 units @ 3.20
She's A Character - 2 units @ 24.00

Baizically It Is A Special At Musselburgh In The 2.55

After scratchings only 4 horses greet the starter in the 2.55 from Musselburgh and one stands out as clearly a superior staying prospect to the rest over the 12f100y test.

Top weight Baizically comes into this on the back of winning two on end including against similar 2 back by 4l over 13f on good to firm going at Hamilton, last start it franked that form winning again for a bigger purse over 14f on this track. Both starts suggest he is well above the level required to win here and he is bred for this trip being by Gallileo. He will be on pace and the pace scenario should prove a bonus which is likely to be slow. It simply keeps on ticking every box we look at. Class will prevail in this facile 4 horse staying contest.

Baizically - 5 units @ 2.46

Wolferton Handicap (Ascot 4.20) Offers Substantial Value

The 4.20 from Ascot which shapes as a 10f Listed affair has 2 horses in the field that catch the eye as very serious chances, one proven against stronger in the form of More Wells who is out of form both runs this season to the untrained eye and an improver from the Godolphin yard in the form of Moonquake.

Moonquake looked very good winning at York over 10f having his 1st UK assignment this season after racing in Dubai at the start of the year, the 4yo son of Mr Greely showed a nice turn of foot to win going away after tracking leaders at York and score by only 0.5l but it was the depth consistent depth of margins further back through a strong field that suggested it had hit a new career peak, it can only improve further here 2nd up from a break and looks the one to beat as a potential low level Group horse in the near future.

The very well bred More Wells shapes as a serious contender if it can refind its early form here, it is 3rd up from a spell for its new France yard after transferring from Ireland at the end of last season via one run in Hong Kong, its 1st up effort this season was full of merit when 4th btn 3.7l, that day it pressured the leader and got chopped out in the stretch subject to significant interference, it is fitter now and back on top of the ground which suits it, it high class form from 2007 and 2008 that is minor Group class, that level will win here if repeated.

Back both of these for a result across the race.

Moonquake - 2 units @ 9.60
More Wells - 1 unit @ 19.50

For place punters the value lies with More Wells at 4.30 for the drum.

Layers, there is every chance to lay Stone Of Scone at 4.90 currently as the favorite on exchanges, he should be longer in this market.

Two Horse War In The Queen's Vase (Ascot 4.55)

A total of 2 horses make appeal in the Queen's Vase from Royal Ascot at 4.55 as types that are capable of winning. Both are solid in the market but enough depth exists in the prices to back for both confidently to derive a healthy profit from the race.

Mastery made marked improvement winning the Italian Derby at Group 2 level last start, it was not the strongest renewal of that race but bottom is he beat a big field by good margins and hit the line strongly, on breeding he will get the trip, his sire Sulamani there is simply no doubt about his ability to stay, his dame sire Diesis has recently been sire or dam sire of numerous worldwide G1 staying winners such as All The Good who won the 2008 Caulfield Cup for Godolphin, Mastery has big scope for further improvement here and on that basis is a very serious hope as a proven Group winner.

Stately Home is also lightly raced subject to big improvement, from the all conquering Ballydoyle yard this 3yo colt by Montjeu out of a Darshaan mare comes into this having its 3rd start and on debut knocked off Yankee Doodle in a strong maiden field at Leopardstown over 10f, it hit the line strongly that day suggesting this step up in trip will pose no problems, it has the usual Ballydoyle look for an emerging stayer, big scope and bred in the purple enough to be considered a significant group winner in the future based on its first few starts, thats good enough for us in this very average G3 contest.

As stated back both for a strong result across the race.

Mastery - 3 units @ 7.00
Stately Home - 3 units @ 9.20

Stately home is slightly better value for place punters.

Dhushan is totally a false favorite, at 4.40 it is good laying material, the place laying odds are very enticing too!

More updates to follow......

UK Royal Ascot Thursday (Day 3) Preview

Away From Ascot.... Maybe I Wont - "Weighted To Win" At Warwick In The 4.10

With the main betting attention for Thursday once again centred on Royal Ascot a good thing has gone under the guard of punters early and should be snapped up.

Last start ultra impressive winner Maybe I Wont lines up in the 4.10 from Warwick as the top weight over 10f on the back of scoring by a widening 7l at Nottingham last start, the form refs back through the beaten brigade suggest this 4yo son of Kyllachy hit a new career peak, hard to envision for a horse that has had 36 career starts but the bottom line factor here is it was only the 2nd time the horse had been tried over 10f and it has only been 8f or further on 7 occasions, the last 6 of them on end, so realistically it is pretty new to the staying caper but has taken to it with aplomb.

Yes it is a sprinting pedigree on the sires side but he is out of a Robellino mare suggesting 10f should pose no problems with progeny of Robellino winning over an average of 10.2f, a lot of the time earlier in its career it was ridden closer to the pace and it is only as the distances have stretched out recently for it that it has been settled near the rear of the field, obviously the change of racing style has also suited it hitting the line very strongly in recent times with big closing pars.

The last start win by 7l suggests over these longer trips it is well above the class required to win here.

At 5.00 currently on exchanges MAYBE I WONT represents huge value on the exchanges in the 4.10 from WARWICK and is likely to be heavily supported into closer to 3.00 come post time. True value in our assessed market is 2.60, jump all over the 5.00 on offer now, plenty of value around for everyone.

More updates to follow......

UK Royal Ascot Wednesday (Day 2) Preview

Potential Superstar Has Jersey Stakes (2.30) At Its Mercy

Ascot 2.30 Loch Linnhe (2) - looked a superstar winning on debut over 8f at Newmarket on 23 May, form refs through the btn brigade suggest it can comfortably make this step in class to the higher level encountered here, very well bred by Elusive Quality out of a Danehill mare, drops back to 7f here after making all over 8f on debut, former Andre Fabre trained horse in France who failed to make the track after consistent starting stall problems in France, potential topliner in the making, this merely a stepping stone to stronger races. Currently trading at 8.40 on the exchanges represents huge value here, should be 4.00 in this market.

Lush Value In The Windsor Forest (3.05)

Ascot 3.05 Lush Lashes (3) - very well bred by Galileo out of an Anabaa mare, looked a super filly last season winning at G1 level on good to firm going by 5l 7 starts ago, slaughtered by Manning next time out when 2nd at Goodwood over 10f also on good to firm behind Halfway To Heaven btn a head, should have won by 2l, came out and franked that form scoring next 2 both at Group 1 level including on inferior yielding ground at Leopardstown, 2nd up now fitter this prep and back on top of the ground, has a big class edge on this lot and if right surely wins this, sensational value at 2.66 on the exchanges currently, may drift slightly further, anything better than 2.30 here is good value.

Market Is Wrong In Prince Of Wales (3.45)

A distinct feeling emerges that the Prince Of Wales Stakes is a very open affair with 4 seen chances in our eyes, if the real Tartan Bearer show up than he is deserved favorite but three others at good double figure odds can be backed with minor confidence to roll him and his other fancied foes at the top of the betting order.

Trincot looks the best chance of scoring an upset, his effort last start was true Group 1 form and his widening 3l win in Group 2 company 2 starts ago was full of merit for this.

Virtual keeps on making progress and has further scope for improvement and amongst his scalps last start is yesterday's G1 winner Paco Boy. He is very well bred by Pivotal, serious claims indeed!

Tazeez can not be left out of calculations, his 1st up win at Newmarket over 9f in Group 3 company has been subsequently proven as a good form reference, prepared to forgive him for his last start failure at Longchamp taking on G1 foes, he can atone and is better than that down the track effort

So back these 3 to win

Trincot - 1 unit @ 24.00
Virtual - 1 unit @ 15.50
Tazeez - 1 unit @ 25.00

All at big juicy double figure odds.

For place punters Trincot looks the best value and chance of these and at 4.40 on the exchanges is very good value.

Favorite Looks The Real Deal In Royal Hunt Cup (4.20)

In assessing this race we have went with the basic theory that a lightly raced potential Group horse shapes as the most likely winner of such a big Heritage Handicap field where the pace is sure to be true, class should prevail.

Under the assertion it is very hard to dismiss the chances of the outright dominant favorite in this big field Forgotten Voice, this 4yo colt by Danehill Dancer is now 3 from 3 after winning by a widening 3l margin over 8f at Kempton last start, all his wins have come on the AW and he may prove slightly more effective on the AW but simple fact that he is by Danehill Dancer out of a Spend A Buck mare suggests he should totally relish the good to firm turf surface here, his last win was full of merit and the form out of the race suggests he is definitely up to Group 3 company on that win, he has further scope for improvement which makes him terribly hard to beat.

The only seen realistic danger looks to be Nanton who drops back to 8f from 10f last time out and does look ready to peak, his effort 5 starts ago when 2nd to Tazeez at Newmarket over 9f in a 28 horse field btn only 1l suggests he is well above average and he may be ready to reproduce that form here, if so he will test Forgotten Voice at odds.

There is enough depth in the market to back both of them obviously in this very big field with a big leaning towards the lightly raced improver Forgotten Voice over Nanton.

Forgotten Voice - 4 units @ 5.40
Nanton - 1 unit @ 23.00

For place punters Nanton is the way to go here at the 6.00 on offer for the drum, don't get me wrong Forgotten Voice will run a drum but with 4 dividends Nanton is huge value at 6.00 for one of the other 3 place positions!

Foreign Connection Set For Queen Mary (4.55) Success

Potentially a very high class Queen Mary field greets us here and 2 horses are worth backing for a result across the race.

Our top elect is the recent very impressive listed winner Don't Tell Mary, her last start score by 4l in a field of 16 over 5f at Beverly just oozed class, she got well back that day but made quick headway when asked to put the issue beyond doubt with a very sharp turn of foot, she hit the line hard and in the big field jam packed with speed today she will get every chance to close off just as hard, she is likely to be very well suited by the stiff 5f test the way she hit the line so hard and Scenic Blast's effort coming from off the pace yesterday is a similar style to suggest she is suited the way the track is playing. She is by the New Zealand bred son of Soviet Star in the form of Starcraft, don't underestimate him as a sire, he was top class in Australia and won 5 Group 1 races in 4 different countries, not many horses anywhere in the world can do that, despite her precociousness this filly looks the real deal in terms of Thousand Guineas calculations next season.

The USA connection of Velazquez and Ward hit the mark with their juvenile Strike The Tiger yesterday in the 5.30 which we tipped and backed at 50/1, interestingly the trainer suggested his other 2yo's to come were better than Strike The Tiger, they enter Jealous Again here who was 2nd in a very strong Grade 3 race at Chruchill Downs last start btn 1.2l by Agean, if the trainer is right this one has serious claims.

We can back them both with decent confidence for a result across the race.

Don't Tell Mary - 4 units @ 5.80
Jealous Again - 2 units @ 11.00

For place punters you can rest comfortably having a good go at Don't Tell Mary, she looks clearly the best of these and has everything in her favour, currently trading at 2.28 the drum is huge place value, she should be 1.75 for the place.

Lay punters can lay both the current exchange favorite Rose Blossom at 5.10 and also Lady Of The Desert at 7.80.

Good Value Early At Hamilton in the 2.55

This shapes as a fairly good betting race, two at double figure odds make appeal to us.

Royal Society drops back in trip to a more suitable 8f approx distance here after finishing down the track losing its action last start over 14f, 2 starts ago it tried to make all over 12f at Kempton and only got caught by the eventual winner in the final furlong to be btn 0.7l, the form out of that race is good enough to win here back through the btn brigade.

The one with big scope for further improvement is Street Spirit by Street Cry out of a Gulch mare, comes into this having its 5th start, back to form last time when 3l 3rd at Southwell over 7f behind You've Been Moved, 1st career start flashed big closing pars over 6f on good to firm at Catterick and just missed when 2nd btn 0.7l, a repeat of either run puts in in this with big claims

Back both for a result across the race.

Royal Society - 1 unit @ 18.00
Street Spirit - 1 unit @ 12.00

For place punters the value lies with Street Spirit as the one with big scope for further improvement, at 3.90 currently on the exchanges it is big value. Should be more like 2.20.

More updates to follow......

UK Royal Ascot Tuesday (Day 1) Preview

Ascot 2.30 Gladiatorus (2) - former Italian galloper who came of age in Dubai earlier in the year winning The Dubai Duty Free by 3.5l over Presvis in what was a strong field, Presvis has since franked the form as has numerous others back through the beaten brigade that day suggesting Glatiatorious' effort winning was easily true G1 quality, now trained by Saeed Bin Suroor which is a minor concern as a fair few of the stable purchases can tend to perform worse once in this yard.

Ascot 2.30 Aqlaam (1) - lightly raced improver by Oasis Dream out of a Rainbow Quest mare, totally forget last start effort on soft going and go on win 2 back in Group 3 company on this track over 7f winning The Jersey Stakes by 2l on good to firm going, form refs out of that race very strong for the grade and has further scope for improvement being so lightly raced, the value commodity.

Betting Advice - 3 units Gladiatorus, 1 unit Aqlaam

Ascot 3.05 Fleeting Spirit (1) - enough depth in the betting market to back 3 horses here, on top os this lightly tried 4yo filly by Invincible Spirit, top class juvenile who knocked off Kingsgate Native who then came out and won against older horses as a juvenile in G1 company, also did it again last season as a 3yo winning in IOpen G1 company, Fleeting Spirit specifically set for this and 1st up for a super hot yard who has 6 winners from its last 22 runners.

Ascot 3.05 Equiano (1) - former Italian who measured up winning this race last season making all holding out Takeover Target and Fleeting Spirit comfortably, always looked the winner and responded strongly when asked in deep stretch, off the boil in 3 runs this season so far but gets blinkers 1st time here, if it can refind that form of last season it once again can win here, I backed this horse to win this race last year at 36.00 on the exchanges.

Ascot 3.05 Mythical Flight (1) - former top class sprinting South African galloper who won twice at Grade 1 level before being tried abroad, form refs through War Artist back in South African put it right in this over the suitable 5f trip, tested over 6f in Singapore and Hong Kong but that was too far, back to its preferred trip here, out and out speedball who will take some running down in deep stretch.

Betting Advice - 2 units Fleeting Spirit, 1 unit Equiano, 1 unit Mythical Flight.

Very open affair in the 5.30 from Ascot ...... still good betting value available.

Master Manannan looks the best of them on exposed form and warrants respect, very good place value at 2.58 currently, the dangers are Clashnacree 24.00, Stand And Fight 24.00 and Strike The Tiger 32.00 who ships in from The USA with good speed figures. All 3 of these 4 runners can be backed for a result across the race.

Master Manannan - 2 units @ 6.60
Clashnacree - 1 unit @ 24.00
Stand And Fight - 1 unit @ 24.00
Strike The Tiger - 1 unit @ 32.00

Dont forget the place bet also on Master Manannan @ 2.58, strong value about a good thing!

Value from all angles in the 3.25 from Thirsk.

Splash The Cash is the one to beat here on exposed form from its win 2 back at Catterick over 7f, minor query back onto harder ground but won over 7f also 5 starts ago on good to firm.

Two others warrant serious respect at prices and should also be backed. Sea Rover is out of a Danehill mare and bred decently, 4 starts ago on this track over 6f just missed when 2l 2nd to Elijah Pepper, a strong form race for the grade! The other one is the lightly raced improving 3yo Rebel City, by hot young sire Elusive City, his last start 2nd at Lingfield suggested big scope for further improvement and the form out of the race is good.

Back all three of them for a result across the race.

Splash The Cash - 3 units @ 7.40
Rebel City - 2 units @ 16.50
Sea Rover - 1 unit @ 50.00

For place punters you can be very confident around the chances of Splash The Cash running a drum at worst. At 2.78 the place currently it is very good value.

The value lay is Mey Blossom at 8.40

Two Horse War in the 4.35 from Thirsk

Looks a race in 2 between Valdan and Hurlingham... one the favorite, the other the outsider, back them both for a result across the race 2 units to 1 unit.

Lay here is Trip The Light @ 4.50, bottom rated of the 5 runners.

Place value in this small field is the outsider Hurlingham @ approx 3.25 the drum.

Churchill Downs (inc G1 Stephen Foster Handicap) Saturday Preview

The G1 Stephen Foster Handicap takes centre stage at Churchill Downs on Saturday as Einstein tries to become the first horse in history to win 3 G1 races successively on 3 different surfaces. His attempt looks likely to be thwarted by Dubai World Cup runner up to Curlin in 2008 Asiatic Boy. Below we preview all the good betting races on the card. Hopefully we can land you a few more big priced winners like Gabby's Golden Gal which won The Acorn Stakes G1 for us last weekend at 15/1.

Saturday 13 June 2009 - Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs R2 Courante (2) - very well bred type by Elusive Quality out of a Valid Appeal mare, comes into this 2nd up from a spell subject with scope for further improvement on the back of a widening 10l margin victory at Indiana Downs over 6f, tracked leaders then showed a very sharp turn of foot entering the bend to be 5l clear at the top of the stretch, that was in $18K MdnSpcWght company, makes a significant rise in class here to $50K Allowance company but looks easily up to handling this step in class, finished 3rd on debut at Fair Grounds in $42K MdnSpcWght company and was a $350K yearling purchase, drawn the outside gate here but that is no concern in the small field as it will track leaders from a midfield position and likely get cover.

Churchill Downs R3 Monkeyinthemiddle (2) - comes into this stretching out to 7f for the first time on the back of finishing 2nd both starts so far over 5.5f at Evangeline Downs and Louisianna Downs btn 1l on each occasion in $23K MdnSpcWght company, dictated a pressured solid tempo both time and battled on strongly not shirking the task, both starts put 3l margins back to 3rd adding good depth and merit to the form out of both races, likely to get a fairly soft lead here from the 3 alley and despite getting caught twice over 5.5f should stretch out fine to 7f, breeding also suggests it can get the 7f trip fine being by Bernstein (Storm Cat) out of a Gone West mare.

Churchill Downs R4 Helliecat (3) - very well bred by Grand Slam out of the AP Indy mare Miss Hellie, comes into this 2nd up from a spell subject to considerably improvement for fitness and race experience on last start effort when 2nd btn a neck against similar to what it faces here, put a big 6.2* 1.7l margin back to 3rd and 4th adding good depth and merit to the form of the first 2 home that day, as a mare minimum looks a level above the class required to win here and is subject to further improvement, drawn perfectly in the 1 alley to dictate the pace on the front end and drops back from 6f to 5.5f which totally suits, ticks a fair few boxes, looks a good thing in the making here as one of the best bets on the card.

Churchill Downs R5 Ebbtide (2) - 2nd up from a spell and fitter for last start effort when 4th in $60K non graded stakes company over 5f, got back to midfield that day against its natural racing style which usually sees it lead, won 2nd up last prep against stronger over the same distance and surface it contests here, lightly raced with scope for further improvement, alley a query but looks well placed on exposed form.

Churchill Downs R8 Warrior's Reward (2) - NORTHERN DANCER STAKES G3 - lightly raced improver and very well bred by the sire of the moment Medaglia D'oro out of a Seeking The Gold mare, comes into this G3 race on the back of scoring last start over 7f 1st up coming from last with a long sustained run to win going away by 2.2l with a further 5l margin back to 3rd in $50K Allowance company, 2nd home came out and won next start franking the form out of the race, subject to considerable improvement on that win and as a minimum looked a graded stakes horse in the making that day, gets its chance to reach that level here in weak G3 company under very suitable conditions, only big query is the slowish pace scenario that is likely but class should prevail.

Churchill Downs R10 Asiatic Boy (1) - STEPHEN FOSTER HANDICAP G1 - shapes realistically as a race in 2 between Asiatic Boy and Einstein, the latter attempting to become the first horse to win G1 races on 3 different surfaces in successive starts, leaning is towards Asiatic Boy having its 1st start in The USA after shipping over from Dubai, 2008 Dubai season took all before him culminating in a 2nd placed finish behind Curlin in the Dubai World Cup and infront of this years winner of the same race Well Armed, the form ref to go on its through Curlin and Einstein finished 2nd in this race last season to Curlin, the margin was not as big as Asiatic Boy's defeat to Curlin in Dubai but Asiatic Boy and had a fair bit go against it that day, he gets the perfect trip here on pace tracking an even tempo, he will have first run at the leaders and Einstein will have to come off his back to run him down, Asiatic Boy will pull too many punches in deep stretch, he also looks the value option.

Churchill Downs R11 Excelente (2) - REGRET STAKES G3 - lightly raced improver by hot young dual hemisphere sire son of Danehill, Exceed And Excel out of a Belmez mare, great nicking as Belmez has an excellent broodmare sire record for stakes winners to runners when nicked to Danehill himself, comes into this having 3rd USA start after breaking maiden status last prep over 7f at Dundalk in Ireland as a 2yo, high merit effort last start when 2nd btn 0.5l over 1m on turf at Arlington Park in $200K non graded stakes company, dug in deep at the business end but couldn't chase down winner who got a softer trip with this one having to close from off a slow pace from near last entering the stretch run, definitely the run of the race and subject to further improvement here for fitness 3rd up and also going to 1m1/8th considering it hit the line very strongly over a mile, drawn the inside gate and likely to race closer to the pace here under a predicted slowish tempo, looks well placed.
.

Nottingham UK Thursday Preview

Nottingham 3.00 No7 Everynight (2) - takes a sharp drop in class here on last start effort when 5l last of 6 at Listed level at Sandown over 8f, go on win 2nd career start 3 back over 10f at Doncaster, showed good initial speed to track leaders and take up a position, made quick headway to lead 1f out, kept on under pressure close home to hold sway by a tight margin over Above Average who came out and won at Group 3 level next start, better suited back to this 1m75y trip and has further scope for improvement on that effort, overly well bred by Rock Of Gibraltar out of a Royal Academy mare and gets in well weighted considering the scope for further improvement it holds.

Nottingham 3.35 No10 Candy Ride (2) - having 3rd career start here and subject to minor improvement on last start effort when 6l 2nd to Strawberrydaiquiri over a similar trip at Windsor last start, tracked leaders and jockey found himself infront way too early hitting the front 3f out from home, battled on strong one paced but was no match for the eventual winner but safely held foes at bay and form refs through those beaten further back suggest there is very good merit to be taken from the effort suggesting it is well up to winning here, very well bred by Pivotal out of the Affirmed mare Mia Mambo, every hope here.

Nottingham 4.10 No10 Fluster (2) - 1st starter and very well bred by Street Cry out of the Storm Cat mare Bluster, expensive yearling purchase representing the astute Johnson yard who is going very well at present for top owner Sheikh Hamdan who is also in a purple patch getting plenty of winners early in June, doesnt have to be a world beater to win in this company over the 1m75y trip on debut.

Nottingham 4.45 No4 Inis Boffin (3) - lightly raced improver who came of age last start breaking maiden status over 9f at Wolverhampton by 0.2l with good gaps further back adding good depth and merit to the form refs coming out of the race, came from last hitting the line strongly suggesting step to 10f50y here will only see it improve again, looks easily above the required level to win in this class on exposed form and scope for further improvement, well bred by Danehill Dancer out of a mare who has produced a 3/4 relation by Danehill who was a decent minor stakes performer in the shape of Winds Of Time.

Golden Jubilee Early Preview

EARLY ROYAL ASCOT PREVIEWS

Royal Ascot 20th Jun - Golden Jubilee Stks

J J The Jet Plane - Currently 5.40 favourite to win this race, won 2 Group 1 races on end in native South Africa back in May and June 08 by 2.2l and 4l in large fields of 15 and 16, sent to Dubai and in February won at Group 2 level over Hatta Fort and one run since in The UK won over 6f at Windsor in Listed company by 4l in a small field, exposed form refs from runs in both Dubai and The UK put it at G3 to G2 level at best despite its native G1 wins, exposed form refs give Sacred Kingdom a clear edge over it. Serious place chance but unlikely to beat the best of these including Sacred Kingdom.

Sacred Kingdom - very well bred sprinter of Australian origin by Encosta De Lago out of Courtroom Sweetie who herself was a very good sprinting mare by Zedative who won 3 from 4 in strong provincial races in Australia at her 2nd prep before going amiss, last start Sacred Kingdom won in Singapore over 6f at Kranji in G1 company defeating the ultra smart Rocket Man 2nd who was previously undefeated in Singapore and the race prior had broken Takeover Target's track record set the previous year in the same race won by Sacred Kingdom this year, those 2 put a big 3.5l margin back to Diabolical in 3rd who at it's start prior was only beaten 6.2l 3rd by Big City Man at Group 1 level in Dubai on Dubai World Cup night and back in July 08 was only 1.7l behind Marchand D'or and also only 2.5l behind African Rose at Doncaster in Group 1 company over 6f, those form refs put Sacred Kingdom well infront of J J The Jet Planes UK Listed success at Windsor and his G3 win in Dubai over Hatta Fort, a third formline confirming this theory is back through Mythical Flight who was beaten 7.2l by Sacred Kingdom in Singapore and was only 1l behind War Artist in its native South Africa, on a comparison J J The Jet Plane through it's South African G1 wins only rates 2-3l infront of War Artist. We feel Sacred Kingdom has 2-3l up its sleeve over J J The Jet Plane. Sacred Kingdom as a juvenile was trained by 3 time Golden Slipper winning trainer Clarry Conners who has publicly been on record as saying it would have won The Golden Slipper if not onsold to Hong Kong prior to the start of its official juvenile career. Since being transferred to Hong Kong it has taken all before it winning 8 of it's first 9 starts culminating in numerous G1 wins over Hong Kong's and the world best sprinters who have visited Hong Kong at various stages, this is a very serious horse who rates clearly above true G1 level as a sprinter on a world wide scale, he has good tactical speed and his racing style will see him able to take up a perfect position either leading if there is a lack of early pace or from a tracking position behind the leaders with equal effect. Shapes as a very serious hope in this race.

Watch a reply of the International Sprint from Kranji won by Sacred Kingdom below

Kings Apostle - G2 winner at Ascot 3 back over Diabolical by a neck over 6f, last start finished a close up 2nd to Utmost respect at G2 level at York over 6f, seems to have come back this prep OK and form ref through Diabolical from the end of last prep puts it 4l below Sacred Kingdom here. G2 quality sprinter who is unlikely to hit a new career peak this prep but is every chance of repeating the Diabolical form ref again this prep, minor place claims in this race.

Kingsgate Native - lightly raced type who in 2007 won against older horses at Group 1 level over 5f as a 2yo at York defeating Desert Lord by 1.7l, franked that form last season winning this race by 1.7l defeating War Artist , Sir Gerry and Takeover Target as a 3yo, being a lightly raced 4yo now is subject to minor inmprovement again this time in work, form references through War Artist and Takeover Target in winning this race last year put it just behind Sacred Kingdom but ahead of the others mentioned above, the most realistic danger to Sacred Kingdom assessed in market order so far.

Utmost Respect - has been tried twice at G1 level in its career so far and was 4l behind Marchand D'or on the best of those efforts, last start won at G3 level at the Curragh on heavy going and does look a better type on soft to heavy ground, so ground becomes a major influence for this one but even at its best on last start win does look 1 level below what is required to win here as a minimum. Outside place chance.

Takeover Target - looked very good winning 1st up this time in work at Randwick over 6f on softish ground scoring by a widening 2.7l over Northern Meteor and champion sprinter Apache Cat another 3l back in 3rd, sensational effort, then did look flat when 2nd up winning again in G1 company but at level weights against a weak G1 field by only 1l over I Am Invincible at Morphettville, was one paced when asked for supreme effort behind Sacred Kingdom next start at Kranji in Singapore finishing 8th btn 7.7l, will come into this rather fresh off a good month plus break and on that basis is capable of refinding the 1st up form it showed this prep which was up with his career best form over a long and destinguished career, don't write him off, he is better suited now to this 6f trip compared to the 5f of the Kings Stand, at the 15.00 available on exchanges he still warrants serious respect.

Ialysos - won 7 from 7 in Greece on sand and ran some very quick times over 5-7f before shipping to the UK and put in the care of Luca Camani, won at 1st UK start last time out at Listed level over 5f at Haydock, form out of that race suggests at best is up to winning at G3 level or a weak G2 with minor improvement still likely to come from that 1st up effort, not that badly bred by Nunthorpe winner So Factual out of a Polish Precedent mare but definitely not a true G1 looking pedigree by any sorts.

Scenic Blast - has really come of age this season winning twice at Group 1 level over 5f and 6f both times down the straight at Flemington, last start won the Newmarket defeating a strong field including Northern Meteor by 1.5l back in 4th, form ref through that line back to Takeover Target on his Sydney 1st up win suggests Takeover Target on its best form has a length on it, well bred by hot Australian based deceased stallion Scenic who is a son of Sadler's Wells that won the Dewhurst in 1998, on best current form is right in this as a minor winning chance.

Sir Gerry - exposed form says it is not up to winning this, merely making up the numbers.

African Rose - fairly lightly raced 4yo filly who came of age last preparation when 2nd to Marchand D'or over 7f on soft going in France at G1 level, franked that winning at Doncaster over 6f in nothing but par G1 company by a neck over Assertive next start, looks to prefer soft ground but even on best form needs to lift slightly to be considered any chance here, outside minor place claims.

Lesson In Humility - last start won at Group 3 level in Ireland over 6f by 1.7l over San Sicharia on good to firm going, subjecto minor improvement again on that win but form out of the race suggests it is no more than an average G3 form race, on that basis easily below the level required to win here.

Bushranger - 1st up this season was 4th to Utmost Respect over 6f on heavy going at the Curragh, prefers firm ground and was a dual G1 winner last season as a Juvenile winning the Prix Morny and Middle Park, both those races now look good strong juvenile G1 form refs, back on firmer ground is likely to improve dramatically on its 1st up run, if it trains on as expected it is capable of winning G1s as a 3yo being a dual G1 winning 2yo, solid claims.

War Artist - Australian bred horse who did its early racing in South Africa winning at G1 level before coming to the UK last season culminating in 3 very god efforts placed at G1 level last two starts behind Kingsgate Native and Marchand D'or, at best subject to minor improvement and on that is a minor place chance here.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER & ASSESSED ODDS

1st. Sacred Kingdom - G1+ - 3.50
2nd. Takeover Target - G1+? - 7.00
3rd. Bushranger - G1 - 9.00
4th. Kingsgate Native - G1 - 11.00
5th. Scenic Blast - G1 - 14.00
Total 70%

On looking at the top 15 runners in Betfair markets early we have assessed their to be 5 major chances in this race. We have them assessed to represent 70% of the better market which means all other engaged runners we equate to a 30% chance in a true market.

Sacred Kingdom is seen as the clear top elect as he ticks all the boxes, form references stand up, he is superbly bred for a sprinting pedigree and he carries the hottest turf sprinting form in the world at the moment and he was considered a brilliant Australian bred sprinting juvenile which puts him 2-3l above a horse like Choisir. We have him assessed at 3.50 or 5/2 and currently is available at 7.00 on the exchanges, launch into him now as this will definitely shorten up close to race time as more people become aware of his high class form.

Takeover Target we have as 2nd elect on the back of his 1st up win in Australia, if he repeats that run he shakes the hell out of this, at 15.00 on exchanges currently he is twice his seen true value price of 7.00 which we have him assessed at.

Bushranger on exposed form and scope for improvement looks the best of the locals and has drifted out somewhat and at 35.00 on the exchanges is hard to refuse betting on especially considering he is an assessed true value price of 9.00.

Back all 3 of these horses to win the race under the following staking structure based on a 10 unit outlay.

Sacred Kingdom - 6 units @ 7.00
Takeover Target - 3 units @ 15.00
Bushranger - 1 unit @ 34.00

Prix Du Jockey Club Preview

PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB (GROUP 1) (3YO COLTS & FILLIES) (3yo) Winner £832,136
Run at Chantilly on Sunday 7 June 2009 over 1m2f110y
Going: GOOD. Number of runners: 17.

A big field of 17 runners is engaged for the Prix Du Jockey Club this year and there is plenty of good betting value to he had in this race. The overall quality of the race is slightly questionable as a true classic G1 3yo form reference and that factor crossed with the big field may see an upset result here.

Silver Frost has been installed the early favourite in betting at 4/1 on the back of his Poule d´Essai des Poulains victory over Le Havre, Naqoos and Westphalia but it can be said that Westphalia was desperately unlucky that day getting shuffled back between horses 2f out back to near last as Silver Frost eased to the outside of it in clear running and as they both started to make headway Westphalia between runners and Silver Frost in clear running down the outside Westphalia got badly held up until the 100y marker as Silver Frost put 3l on it making headway down the outside to skip clear of the chasers at the same point, once into clear running over the last 100y Westphalia made up big headway in deep stretch hitting the line the strongest of all, he should have finished closer to Silver Frost and probably could have won if he wasn't so badly inconvenienced at a crucial stage. Stepping to the 10f here we can be confident that Westphalia will be a much better prospect over the longer trip and have the measure of Silver Frost.

Watch a reply of the Poule d´Essai des Poulains below

Westphalia will also likely benefit from a bigger field and a much stronger pace than he encountered in the Poule d´Essai des Poulains especially considering Drumbeat is also engaged for the stable and may be used as a pacemaker against its natural racing style which says it is most effective coming from off the pace.

Drumbeat himself is no mug either and you can forget his last start effort at the Curragh when well beaten by Mastercraftsman, it was only 4 starts ago that he finished 0.5l 2nd to Fame And Glory over 10f in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 10f as a 2yo, the form out of that race is definitely standing up with Fame And Glory running 2nd in the Derby to Sea The Stars yesterday and horses the calibre of Zafisio further back adding good depth and merit. If they do send Drumbeat forward it is likely he will get a fairly soft trip on the front end and if left alone may be hard to run down at the business end now that he is back on a firmer track than encountered last start over an unsuitable 8f on heavy going at the Curragh.

There is three others with chances in this race outside of the 3 already mentioned. Parthenon looked good winning at Hamilton over 11f last start in Listed company despite the small field and is proven oer the trip and likely to improve again here having its 3rd start this season.

Feels Alright finished 3rd in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud behind Fame And Glory and Drumbeat as a juvenile and has won both his starts this preparation including a strong score last start in Listed company but is a bit short in the markets compared to the value around some of the others engaged here.

Fuisse looked very impressive last start on soft ground over 8f at Maisons-laffitte winning the Prix de Mesnil le Roi by 6l in a small 5 horse field but the margin may have been fluked and flattered by the wet track somewhat, still it seems to have trained on significantly from its juvenile form last season which saw it beaten 2l by both Silver Frost and Zafisio, it has claims if it improves again which is likely but one big query for this horse is the sire Green Tune who has worse than a 3% strike rate in G1 European contests.

Westphalia looks the best placed here and we like it to win the race and at generous odds of 8/1 there is good value to be had, but we are also going to suggest backing Drumbeat as it's price is just too good to refuse at 40/1. Back them both for a result across the race with a significantly bigger bet on Westphalia compared to the Drumbeat bet.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER AND ASSESSED ODDS
1st - Westphalia - 5.00
2nd - Drumbeat - 6.60
3rd - Silver Frost - 6.60
4th - Parthenon - 9.00
5th - Fuisse - 10.00
6th - Feels Alright - 11.00

BETTING ADVICE:

WIN BETTING: Back two horses to win being Westphalia who is 9.00 with bookmakers currently and at true value odds of 5.00 is very good overs, twice the required price is available. Also back Drumbeat but only for a quarter the amount you have on Westphalia. At 41.00 or 40/1 with bookmakers currently this is big overs considering we have it assessed as a 6.60 chance is it gets the right trip in transit.

PLACE BETTING: Once again there is enough value in the place market to back both the runners we have mentioned above under the same staking procedure 4pts to 1pt / Westphalia to Drumbeat.

LAY BETTING: Beheshtam represents the best laying value in the race considering we haven't included it in our top 6 chances and it is a 5/1 2nd favourite with bookmakers currently. Feels Alright is also big unders at 6/1 on a true value assessed price of 10/1 or 11.00.
.

Acorn Stakes Preview

Acorn S. (Grade 1). for 3yo fillies1 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000.
Run at Belmont Park on Saturday, June 6th, 2009, Race 9

A decent field greets us for the 2009 renewal of the Acorn Stakes and 4 horses come in here with realistic chances of taking G1 glory.

Justwhistledixie will be sent out a short priced favourite going on early markets and is a 2.60 prepost elect but with 3 other serious chances she is a risky commodity at that short quote.

The pace scenario will be critical here and it is Gabby's Golden Gal who is likely to benefit most under the pace scenario drawn down in the 2 alley, she is likely to find the front upon jumping without working early and try to dictate the pace on the front end.

We can forget her last start effort in the Kentucky Oaks which Rachel Alexandra won by a staggering 20l margin, that day she was forced to set a solid pace on the front end as Rachel Alexandra stalked and pressed her through the middle stages, the start prior she won the Sunland Park Oaks at only her 4th career start by a widening 13l margin, our video comment from that run suggests she is well above average and reads "evenly away then forward to sit outside one other coleading at a solid tempo, eased slightly and wide into 1st bend -0.5l 2nd outside coleader, same round 1st turn then as pace slackened down the back pushed on to cross coleader and find fence leading +1l, slowed the tempo before the turn dictating as initial coleader pushed up outside it, field bunching, given minor reign before the home bend, slipped 1.5l clear quickly with further gaps back, chasers under pressure into the bend, +3l 1/4 pole travelling well, straightened 7l clear under hand riding, +9l furlong marker and changed strides, kept finding in deep stretch extending margin to 13l on the line, still strong on the line, clearly superior, big scope for more".

Watch a reply of the Sunland Park Oaks below

That effort in $200K stakes company suggests she was well above her foes and up to top class Graded stakes events in the future.

She is very well bred by Medaglia D'oro out of an Ashkalani mare giving her the Sadler's Wells * Danzig nick which has produced a multitude of top class milers over time.

Dropping back to the mile here after contesting the Kentucky Oaks she will give them something to run down in deep stretch after dictating the pace on the front end.

She obviously took no harm from her Kentucky Oaks failure after working a bullet 1:00.6 over 5f on June 1 in prep for this as the 2nd quickest of 28 moves on the day.

A big value commodity in this race in our eyes.

The major queries to her chances come in the form on Livin Lovin who is by Birdstone out of a Captain Bodgit mare, it resumes from a 7 month break here after annexing a G3 mile race at Aqueduct back in November by 4.2l, 2nd and 3rd both came out and won their next starts adding good depth and merit to the winners performance that day.

Dream Play also has serious claims on the back of scoring by widening 5l margin in the G2 Comely at Aqueduct back in April but that was on sloppy going so the margin was personified somewhat by the track. She is also a query over a strong high class mile being by Hennessy out of a Saratoga Six mare, both sire and dam sire get their best at 6.5f to 7f.

The other major hope is Justwhistledixie who has won its last 5 on end including G2 successes at each of its last 2 starts but the margins haven't been great and last time it was fluked and flattered by a perfect trip tracking an above average par time through the early and middle stages, she is decently bred by Dixie Union out of a Honour And Glory mare but it is in no way an out and out G1 pedigree.

On this basis we feel Gabby's Golden Gal is huge value at the prepost price of 15/1, it is unlikely she will end up going around at that price, smart video students will see the merit in her Sunland Park Oaks win, more likely you can expect 8/1 or similar come past time but that is still very good value.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER AND ASSESSED ODDS

1st - Gabby's Golden Gal - 3.80
2nd - Dream Play - 4.50
3rd - Justwhistledixie - 5.00
4th - Livin Lovin - 6.00

BETTING ADVICE:

Win Betting: Gabby's Golden Gal is very good value considering we have her marked up as a true value 3.80 chance here and prepost she is being quoted on the 16/00 or 15/1 line, we expect her to start shorter than this price but 8/1 should be available which is big overs compared to our assessed price. Dream Play is also at 6/1 prepost and should be available above the assessed price of 4.50 so she too is worth saving on, basically we suggest backing both these horses with the major emphasis on Gabby's Golden Gal to roll the short priced favourite Justwhisltedixie.

Place Betting: It rather obvious that Gabby's Golden Gal is the way to go here too, her true place price should be around the 1.90 mark, exchange punters will get well above that for first 3 place betting whilst USA tote players will get easily well above that price for the show.

Lay Betting: 3 runners that are all on the 6/1 line prepost represent the value lays being Casanova Move, Doremifasollatido, Four Gifts. As long as you can lay at less than 10/1 or 11.00 on any of these three then lay as many of them as possible, our top 4 elects as mentioned above will fight this race out.

English Oaks Preview

Epsom 4.05 English Oaks G1 £350K 12f 3yof - We only have highlighted the horses we feel are capable of reaching true G1 level under the conditions of this race.

Midday (Rating G1) - jumped out of its skin last start winning in Listed company at Lingfield over 11f by 6l defeating July Jasmine, hit the front 2f out that day and had a bit in hand close home hitting the line strongly, now 3rd up from a spell this time in work it steps to 12f and will appreciate the extra trip and has minor scope for further improvement, very well bred by hot young sire Oasis Dream out of the Kingmambo mare Midsummer, some will doubt its ability to stay the 12f by the breeding on the sires side with Oasis Dream being a son of Green Desert, admittedly it does look a milers pedigree through the sires side but with the Kingmambo influence as dam sire and Roberto thrown into the mix as the grand dam sire it is likely to have the stoutness and stamina in its pedigree to get the 12f as was suggested the way it closed off strong in deep stretch at Lingfield over 11f, serious claims as a potential G1 horse.

Rainbow View (Rating G1+?) - winner 4 from 4 in juvenile season last year romping in at all starts culminating in winning the Fillies mile at Ascot at G1 level over 8f 2.5*3.2l over Fantasia and Dreamtheimpossible. Fantasia came out and franked that form winning in G3 company when resuming this season by a big 7l margin at Newmarket over 7f then finished 2nd to Elusive Wave btn 2l at G1 level in France over 8f. Elusive Wave has only been beaten once in 6 starts when 3l 2nd to Proportional in Group 1 company at Longchamp over 8f at the end of its juvenile season in the Marcel Boussac, Rainbow View met defeat 1st up this season when 5th btn 3l by Ghanaati over 8f in the 1000 Guineas, she seemed flat footed when asked 1f out that day but picked up late making good headway over the final 100y, she will come on a lot from that run and will likely be suited better here stepping to 12f and getting good ground instead of good to firm as encountered in the 1000 Guineas, Gosden is astute and if all was not right they would not have pushed onto this race, she is very well bred by Dynaformer out of the Nureyev mare No Matter What making her a half sister to the stakes performers Just As Well (AP Indy) and Winter View (Thunder Gulch) who both seemed at their best over 10f to 12f. Dynaformer's stock do get better with distance and are at their best over 11f to 12f so as a 3yo she is likely to be looking for this trip now as proven by the way she closed off in deep stretch when 1st up in the 1000 Guineas doing her best work close home, this horse is true G1 level and potentially if at her peak a chance of rating slightly above that level in the conditions she gets here.

Sariska (Rating G1++?) - very hard to deny the chances of this lightly raced daughter of Pivotal on the back of last start winning super impressively over 10f88y at York when annexing the G3 Musidora, she gapped the small field that day winning by a widening 3.7*3.5l margin and the form refs of those finishing 2nd to 4th all suggest she is well and truly up to G1 level, she got a good trip tracking leaders under an even tempo then quickly put the issue beyond doubt, once again a query will exist for some as to her ability to stay the 12f being by Pivotal who gets his best over 7f to 8f but on the dams side she is bred to get this trip being out of a Mutharram mare Maycocks Bay who is also the dam of Gull Wing (In The Wings) best in stakes company at 12f to 14f. An interesting form reference when assessing the class of Sariska can be taken through High Heeled who finished 10.5l 4th to Sariska in The Musidora, at it's 1st career start it was 6l 2nd to Rainbow View over 7f at Newmarket suggesting that even with High Heeled's natural improvement between that run and the Musidora that Sariska is some 4l above Rainbow View on pure form refs and High Heeled was also slowly away on debut closing just as well as Rainbow View that day but in The Musidora it simply couldn't quicken at the level Sariska was able to after similar trip tracking leaders. Sariska clearly ticks the most boxes of the major chances noted and looks the one to beat.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER AND ASSESSED ODDS
1st Sariska - 2.70
2nd Midday - 3.60
3rd Rainbow View - 4.20

BETTING ADVICE:

Win Betting: Once again the betting public have this market somewhat right with the three noted runners above being clearly the market elects and top 3 in betting. We still think there is a big advantage in the betting with Sariska considering we have her assessed as a 2.70 chance and currently she is available at 4.00 on the exchanges. You can rest assured she will firm into shorter than this price closer to post time and there is every chance she may even hit 3.50 or 5/2 come post time so the 4.00 on offer now is huge value and should be snapped up while it exists.

Place Betting: Sariska currently trades at 1.60 on the exchanges and this price represents slightly better than 1/3rd of our assessed win price of 2.70 in a 10 horse field so the place price that exists is rather enticing despite the shortness of the quote, around the 1.45 to 1.50 mark is true place value in this market.

Lay Betting: Unleash here when laying Phillipina who is big unders at 7.40 considering the top 3 in the market noted as the chances above should represent 88%-90% of the betting market in our assessment, at a price of 7.40 she represents 13% of the betting market which is ridiculous, at best she should represent 4% of the betting market when considering we have a total of 7 runners to fill the left over percentage of the betting market, as a minimum she should be decent double figure odds, she will not figure at the business end.

Belmont Stakes Preview

Belmont R11 Belmont Stakes G1 $1,000K 1m1/2 - The 3rd leg of the USA Triple Crown for 3yos takes place on Saturday with the running of the Belmont Stakes from Belmont and 50/1 shock Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird looks to annex the race as the likely favorite after producing a game 2nd to wonder filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness Stakes.

A field of 13 is engaged for the race and it shapes as a battle of 3 main chances under our assessment of the race.

The pace scenario will be critical here as there is very few on paced runners engaged suggesting those that it get it soft on the front end have a slight advantage here. In looking at this angle it becomes clearly evident that the lightly raced Charitable Man comes right into calculations.

Charitable Man comes into this having its mere 5th career start off a 5-3-1-0 mark on the back of annexing the G2 Peter Pan over 1m1/8th on this track on the 9th of May by a widening 3.7l margin with further good gaps back through the field, that day it settled 2nd stalking a tearaway leader through an above average par time early in the race but when asked it quickly gathered in the leader gapping the other chasers further back with a superior turn of foot. The way it hit the line suggests it has good scope for further improvement going to 1m1/2 here. On debut last prep as a juvenile it duelled with one other on the front end then drew off for a resounding 11.5l win in $62K Mdn Allowance company at Saratoga. Its on pace racing style suggests it gets all the favours here on the front end and will be able to cross from the 6 alley and dictate the pace with no early pressure. It is very well bred by Lemon Drop Kid out of the Saint Ballado mare Charitabledonation. Importantly it is now 2 from 2 on this track after winning the Futurity G2 as a juvenile over 7f.

One of the other two major chances is Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird who at 2/1 prepost represents the likely favorite. Earlier in its career Mine That Bird had been successful in lesser company settling a lot closer to the pace than it has in The Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes where it came from last on both occasions with huge closing pars. With the lack of speed engaged here there is every chance that Calvin Borel will elect to race closer here stalking from slightly worse than midfield to give Mine That Bird a serious chance of closing off over the top of Charitable Man. This horse may have now already reached its peak which is very likely and it is hard to see it having any major scope for further improvement and it does to close better in sloppy going as experienced in the Kentucky Derby so there is every chance it will not reproduce that Derby run, if so then it will struggle to run down Charitable Man in deep stretch.

The biggest query in the race we feel is Dunkirk who forms the other major chance. This $3.7M yearling buy from Keeneland September in 2007 is superbly bred by Unbridled's Song out of the A.P. Indy mare Secret Status and comes in here with good scope for further improvement as a lightly raced type having its mere 5th career start. Drawn down near the fence from the 2 gate it is likely to race in midfield stalking Charitable Man with a better chance of closing off over the top in deep stretch. 2 starts ago it finished 2nd in The Florida Derby before failing to handle the sloppy conditions in the Kentucky Derby. The start prior at Gulfstream Park it made it two on end scoring very impressively in Allowance company by a widening 4.7l over 1m1/8th after stalking from midfield. Hitting the line strongly that day it gives every indication that the 1m1/2 will be no problems here.

So we make Charitable Man top elect here on an assessed price of 3.80 and on exchanges currently that price is easily achievable, we expect it to be more likely around the 5.50 mark representing very good value. We put Dunkirk in for 2nd infront of Mine That Bird who fills 3rd in our top 3.

1st - Charitable Man
2nd - Dunkirk
3rd - Mine That Bird

BETTING ADVICE

For win betting back Charitable Man on a 3% outlay to win the race.

For place betting you can be confident of Charitable Man finishing in the top 3 and at better than even money or 2.00 represents huge value on the exchanges.

For lay betting the best options for safety of return suggest both Chocolate Candy and Flying Private, 4th and 5th elects on the exchanges can be laid with confidence in the win markets.

English Derby Preview

INVESTEC DERBY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (3yo)
Going: GOOD. Number of runners: 13. Distance 1m4f10y
Run on Saturday 6 June 2009, Epsom 3.45

1 4-1 Age Of Aquarius 28 3 9-0 A P O´Brien P J Smullen b c Galileo (IRE) — Clara Bow (FR) (Top Ville)
Rating - G3+
2nd up here for this season on the back of scoring over 11f at Lingfield in a small 5 horse field defeating Montaff and Father Time by tight margins, form out of that race only par for the grade and confirmed by prior form of the beaten brigade, minor scope for further improvement but needs to lift significantly to be competitive here.

2 -31 Black Bear Island 23 3 9-0 A P O´Brien Ryan Moore b c Sadler´s Wells (USA) — Kasora (IRE) (Darshaan)
Rating - G1
3rd up from a spell this season and ready to peak here going to 12f on the back of an impressive 10f G2 win at York over Freemantle and Sans Fontieres, form franked to major degree as it came from the back and closed best of all that day and was still strong on the line suggesting further here no problems, Freemantle was a super impressive 10l winner the start prior and Sans Frontieres was only btn 2.7l by delegator the start prior when 2nd in a very competitive G3 over 8f at Newmarket, good scope for further improvement here, bred for this by Sadler's Wells out of the Darshaan mare Kashora making it a full relation to High Chapparal, Helena Molony and Treasure The Lady.

3 1-8 Crowded House 23 3 9-0 B J Meehan Not Notified ch c Rainbow Quest (USA) — Wiener Wald (USA) (Woodman (USA))
Rating - G2+
Won the Racing Post Trophy over 8f at the end of juvenile season by a widening 3.5l over 8f but form out of that race now looks slightly suspect as a G1 form reference, didn't come on when resuming 8th behind Black Bear Island beaten 4.5l, likely improver here 2nd up for fitness but needs to lift considerably to find G1 form here, not likely.

4 113 Debussy 30 3 9-0 J H M Gosden Jimmy Fortune b c Diesis — Opera Comique (FR) (Singspiel (IRE))
Rating - Lst+
Saluted 2 runs back at Epsom over 10f by 1.2l over Midday and subsequent form out of that race suggests is merely up to Listed level, confirmed that though pattern last start when btn 3.5l by Golden Sword into 3rd at Group 3 level, 4th up here and definitely not subject to major improvement which is required to figure, making up the numbers at best.

5 -11 Fame And Glory 27 3 9-0 A P O´Brien J A Heffernan b c Montjeu (IRE) — Gryada (Shirley Heights)
Rating - G1+?
Winner 4 from 4 in short career, came of age as a juvenile winning at G1 level having 2nd start as a juvenile in France, minor query over form out of that race since as a G1 form reference, G3 winner 1st up this preparation followed by a resounding 5l win at G2 level last start at Leopardstown but that was in a small 5 horse field over 10f and it was swishing its tail and under pressure close home despite thw widening margin, no major scope for further improvement, well bred by Montjeu out of the Shirley Heights mare Gryada making it a half relation to Grampain and Guaranda, despite being bred for 12f it may be best suited over the 10f to 11f at this stage of its career, very serious hope all the same.

6 2-3 Gan Amhras 35 3 9-0 J S Bolger Not Notified b c Galileo (IRE) — All´s Forgotten (USA) (Darshaan)
Rating - G1?
2nd up from a spell subject to considerable improvement on 1st up effort when 3rd to Sea The Stars beaten 2.2l in the 2000 Guineas, chased the leaders that day and finished best of the on pacers after coming again over the final 100y hitting the line well, on breeding should get the 12f but it is a minor query, subject to considerable improvement and has serious place claims if it improves again as expected and if it gets the trip.

7 -41 Golden Sword 30 3 9-0 A P O´Brien C O´Donoghue b c High Chaparral (IRE) — Sitara (Salse (USA))
Rating - G3+
One of the likely pacemakers for the O'Brien yard on the back of winning in G3 company last start over this distance at Chester by 2l, form out of that race only par for the grade, 3rd up now with minor improvement expected but has a fair bit against it including depth of overall class and likely use as one of the pacemakers for a yard that has 6 entries here, prefer elsewhere against slightly weaker.

8 1-5 Kite Wood 23 3 9-0 Saeed Bin Suroor L Dettori b c Galileo (IRE) — Kite Mark (Mark Of Esteem (IRE))
Rating - G2-
Comes into this having 2nd run this season for the Godolphin yard, G3 winner at the end of last season in only an average G3 through subsequent form references over 8f at Ascot, 1st up this prep tracked leaders with a good trip in transit but was one paced when asked in deep stretch to finish 5th btn 2l by Black Bear Island, minor improvement expected here and likely to be on pace again but needs to make significant improvement to figure as a major player, not in this grade currently.

9 0-2 Masterofthehorse 30 3 9-0 A P O´Brien Richard Hughes b c Sadler´s Wells (USA) — Shouk (Shirley Heights)
Rating - G2
2nd up this season coming in here on the back of finishing 2nd btn 2l by Golden Sword in G3 company at Chester over same distance it faces here, will be much fitter for that outing and subject to considerable improvement, best effort was as a juvenile when 3rd btn 0.5l by Sea The Stars on a yielding track at the Curragh, looks to be better on softer ground than it will encounter here, outside place claims.

10 1-2 Montaff 28 3 9-0 M R Channon R Hills b c Montjeu (IRE) — Meshhed (USA) (Gulch (USA))
Rating - G2-
Makes a significant jump in class here having 2nd run this term on the back of chasing home Age Of Aquarius for 2nd btn 0.2l in a small 5 horse G3 over 11f at Lingfield, hit the front in deep stretch then died on its run that day, subject to decent improvement for fitness on that run, will be on pace tracking leaders and should get every chance but rise in class is against it even with improvement taken into account.

11 7-4 Rip Van Winkle 35 3 9-0 A P O´Brien J Murtagh b c Galileo (IRE) — Looking Back (IRE) (Stravinsky (USA))
Rating - G1
Having 2nd run this season here on the back of finishing 2.5l 4th to Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas, got held up at a critical stage when making strong headway 2f out that day, unlucky not to finish closer and subject to considerable improvement stepping to 12f here, solid claims.

12 1-1 Sea The Stars 35 3 9-0 John M Oxx Not Notified b c Cape Cross (IRE) — Urban Sea (USA) (Miswaki (USA))
Rating - G1+
2nd up for this term here on the back of winning the 2000 Guineas by 1.5l over 8f defeating Delegator. Mastercraftsman 5th btn 4l has since franked the form winning the Irish 2000 Guineas by a big margin in dominant fashion, got a god trip in midfield then let down with a sharp turn of foot hitting the line strongly widening the margin over the final furlong, subject to decent improvement on that run going to 12f and should have no problem handling the extra 4f especially on breeding being out of the blue hen matriarch Urdan Sea who won the Arc and has produced such notable stayers such as Galileo, Black Sam Bellamy, My Typhoon and All Too Beautiful, likely to get a near perfect trip in midfield tracking a solid and true tempo, the other major chances will have to run it down from further back, looks the best suited here on exposed form, ticks the most boxes of any of these, the one to beat.

13 21 South Easter 29 3 9-0 W J Haggas N Callan ch c Galileo (IRE) — Dance Treat (USA) (Nureyev (USA))
Rating - G3+
Very lightly raced type coming in here having mere 3rd career start on the back of winning a bunched G3 last start over 10f at Chester, prior form references through that race suggest at best was only par for G3 grade that day, subject to improvement here but needs to lift considerably to be competitive against the best of these, not likely.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER AND ASSESSED ODDS
1st Sea The Stars - 4.10
2nd Rip Van Winkle - 5.50
3rd Black Bear Island - 6.60
4th Fame And Glory - 7.60
5th Gan Amhras - 10.00

The strongest form race to follow into this race is the 2000 Guineas which was won by SEA THE STARS in very impressive fashion, it definitely ticks the most boxes of these, RIP VAN WINKLE was slightly unlucky in that race and should have finished closer and looks the best of the rest especially over the 12f trip encountered here, BLACK BEAR ISLAND has good scope and is the unknown quantity, minor queries exist around FAME AND GLORY on its last start wide margin win, prepared to risk it here with value found in the other 3 previously mentioned, rounding out the top 5 is Gan Amhras who finished 3rd in the 2000 Guineas.

BETTING ADVICE

Win Betting: Sea The Stars is assessed as a 4.10 chance and at 4.30 on the exchanges currently is slightly overs compared to its true price, not much of an advantage but it does look the one to beat here. Black Bear Island is decent overs at 9.80 on the exchanges compared to its assessed price of 6.60, it has good advantage andm ay be worth a minor play as the value commodity to save on if Sea The Stars fails to fire.

Lay Betting: Fame and Glory looks the best laying opportunity currently trading at 5.30 on the exchanges compared to its true quote of 7.60.

Bottom line here is that the betting public has basically got this race pretty much right when looking at our assessed true value quotes.

Preakness Stakes Preview

Pimlico R12 Preakness Stakes G1 $1,100K 1m3/8th - The 2nd leg of the Triple Crown from Pimlico will see shock 50/1 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird try to repel the challenges of not only super filly Rachel Alexandra who won the Kentucky Oaks by 20l but also the likels of Fresian Fire, Pioneerof The Nile and new Triple crown contestant Big Drama amongst others and it is these 4 horses that we feel form the major chances in The Preakness Stakes.

Big Drama is drawn down on the rail and is sure to go forward and try to dictate from the front but there will be no loafing upfront with Rachel Alexandra also likely to go forward and contest the lead from the outside alley. Rachel Alexandra has changed hands and is now in the astute yard of Steve Rasmussen and this race was never on the agenda for the iron filly which is of slight concern but connections are adamant she can handle the 2 week back up against the boys off such a massive Oaks win. We have to take Asmussen’s judgement on trust here knowing he is a great conditioner.

With Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra setting solid sectionals on the front end Fresian Fire and Pioneerof The Nile will both get good trips tracking the speed whilst Mine That Bird with journeyman jockey Mike Smith will go back to last and once again try to close with big pars and run them down in deep stretch. Bottom line with Mine That Bird is the simple fact that it grew an extra leg getting through the slop to win The Kentucky Derby and is unlikely to get the same hot pace to close off here and wont have the slop in its favour. This race will be won from the front end.

Rachel Alexandra was simply emphatic the way she took the Oaks by the scruff of the neck down the back and into the home bend to straighten 10l clear at the top of the stretch, but furthermore the way she closed the race off extending the margin down the lane has most shaking their heads in disbelief. The video did not lie, it was a freakish performance and it was done on a Fast track and she hit the line strongly suggesting the extra distance here should pose no problems and on breeding we think she also gets the trip no problems with the stamina influence through the male line from Sadler's Wells giving extra confidence in this area.

Big Drama who is likely to battle the pace with her is on the back of a 6 race winning streak despite last time out being demoted to 2nd after crossing the line 1st in the G2 Swale, the alley gives him his chance here of stepping to the next level and he has solid claims.

It is more likely although that Fresian Fire will be able to regain its best form after flopping in the Derby when not getting the best start and not handling the slop. The start prior this blueblood son of AP Indy was a 7l winner in Grade 2 company with form refs out of that race since suggesting Fresian Fire has a minor edge over the likes Pioneerof The Nile. Papa Clem who finished 2nd to Fresian Fire that day was also 2nd to Pioneerof The Nile the start prior and Pioneerof The Nile came out and then finished 2nd to Mine That Bird in the slop in the Kentucky Derby. Fresian Fire is drawn perfectly from the 5 gate to get a gun run tracking the speed with cover. He will bounce back from the last start failure and prove a major challenger here.

Pioneerof The Nile also holds very solid claims but simply is unlikely to improve off his gut buster in the Kentucky Derby and may flatten out and return the same level again here.

The biggest factor to take into account here is the dominant win of Rachel Alexandra in the Kentucky Oaks, it is hard to see any of these being able to produce the closing pars required to run this wonder filly down in deep stretch.

1st – Rachel Alexandra – installed 8/5 prepost favourite, anything better than 5/4 is good value
2nd – Fresian Fire
3rd – Big Drama
4th – Pioneerof The Nile

French 2000 Guineas Preview

Longchamp 2.25 POULE D'ESSAI DES POULAINS (French 2000 Guineas) 3yo Colts G1 1mile Winner £221,903 - 11 runners greet us for the running of the 2009 French 2000 Guineas and realistically it shapes as only an average renewal of the time honoured event. 3 major players take our eye in the form of Westphalia, Handsome Maestro and Naaqoos. We lean towards the Aidan O'Brien trained Westphalia as the major elect. It looks a superbly bred type being by Danehill Dancer out of the Lyphard mare Pharapachee making it a half relation to 2 stakes performers over a mile in the form of Stockholder and Cliquot. Comes into this having its 2nd run this season on the back of finishing 2nd btn 0.5l in Group 3 company over this track and distance, should have come on significantly for that run and capable of reaching the same level it produced when 2nd to the very smart Donatavium 2 starts ago when contesting the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. That form reference is clearly the highest of the exposed form in this race for us. The big query runner is Handsome Maestro who is very well bred himself being by Dansili out of the Bering mare Graceful Bering. He comes into this off the back of a dominant effort in 3yo company scoring by 4l over this track and distance and is now 2nd up this prep subject to big scope for further improvement, a winner 3 of its last 4 this son of Dansili keeps on answering the new question asked each time, at 14/1 in early betting it is the value commodity worth specking behind Westphalia. The other under consideration for the minors is Naaqoos who is by hot young sire Oasis Dream out of the Machiavellian mare Straight Lass. He was nosed out by Le Havre (also engaged here) last start on the back of an average G1 victory the start prior, it doesnt seem to have the scope the other 2 possess for further improvement.

1st - No7 Westphalia - assessed price 3/1 or 4.00, currently being offered by books at 4/1 or 5.00 representing decent overs, expect it to firm closer to post time.
2nd - No3 Handsome Maestro - assessed price 9/2 or 5.50, currently being offered by books at 14/1 or 15.00 representing very good overs, smart each way money will come for it late, should firm a point or two.
3rd - No1 Naaqoos - assessed price 5/1 or 6.00, is trading at that price with books, no advantage.

Back both Westphalia and Handsome Maestro for a result across the race

Lay - No9 Vocalised

2000 Guineas Preview & More For Saturday UK Coverage

Newmarket 3.10 R3 2000 Guineas G1 £400K 1m 3yo - shapes as an average type of field on exposed form for the 1st classic of the European flat season. 4 seen major chances in our eyes with a distinct leaning towards Mastercraftsman on top. This one put together 4 wins on end to start its juvenile career last season before goibg to the well once too often when 4th to Naaqoos over 7f in G1 company at Longchamp, prior to that bolted up winning the Phoenix Stakes G1 over 6f at the Curragh on good to firm going by 4.5l over Art Connoisseur, totally franked that next start scoring in Group 1 company again winning the National Stakes over 7f on heavy going by a short head with big margins back to 3rd and 4th adding good depth and merit, well bred by Danehill Dancer out of the Black Tie Affair mare Starlight Dreams making this one a 3/4 brother to the stakes winner Genuine Devotion (Rock Of Gibraltar). Stayed the 7f as a juvenile on a bottomless track suggesting should handle 8f on good to firm here with no problems, likely to be on pace tracking leaders getting one of the runs of the race under a solid tempo. At 5/1 prepost represent clearly the best value here and in our assessment should be 3/1 favorite, the biggest query is likely to come from the very well bred Sea The Stars who is superbly related being by Cape Cross out of the Arc winner Urban Sea making it a half brother to non other than Galileo, Black Sam Bellamy and All Too Beautiful, comes into this having its 4th start on the back of finishing juvenile campaign winning The Beresford Stakes in fine style, has the most scope for further improvement here and shapes as the major danger. For ours the other 2 minor queries who can figure in the placings are Gan Amhras and Lord Shanakill.

1st - No9 Mastercraftsman - assessed price 3/1 or 4.00
2nd - No16 Sea The Stars
3rd - No6 Gan Amhras

Lay - No15 Rip Van Winkle

Newmarket 2.30 R2 Jockey Club Stakes G2 £100K 1m4f 4yo+ - a small field of 5 runners is engaged for this intriguing G2 race over 12f with 2 major stand out chances on exposed form dominating the market and they look set to fight it out with both capable of winning in this advertised class, the pace scenario will be critical especially considering that early favorite Casual Conquest will likely have to come from last and run down the soft leaders who will get every chance to close off with big pars after a soft/slowish pace develops during the middle stages, we have a clear leaning towards Spanish Moon the 5yo son of El Prado out of the Rainbow Quest mare Shining Bright making tis one a full brother to Spanish Sun who was a G2 winner at Ascot also for the Stoute yard as a 3yo. For Spanish Moon go on its big effort last start when nosed out by Eastern Anthem in the G1 Dubai Sheema classic over 12f at Nad Al Sheba during the recent Dubai carnival, that race carries very strong form refs through the btn brigade including Youmzain 4th was prior finished 2nd to Zarkava in the Arc and Purple Moon 3rd who was bloused close home by Efficient in The Melbourne Cup G1 a season earlier in Australia, Marsh Slide 5th Quijano 6th and Doctor Dino 8th all add further depth and merit suggesting the efforts of the first two home that day were of true G1 level, Spanish Moon will get a good trip here tracking leaders whilst Casual Conquest will have to chase it down from the back off an unsuitable pace scenario and on the back of the Dubai Sheema effort Spanish Moon also comes in with the fitness edge, enough to lean us confidently in its direction, the other 3 runners merely make up the numbers,.

1st - No5 Spanish Moon - assessed price 5/4 or 2.25
2nd - No3 Casual Conquest

Lay - No1 All The Aces and No2 Bronze Cannon
.

Kentucky Oaks & More For Friday USA Coverage

Churchill Downs R11 Kentucky Oaks G1 $500K 1m1/8th - the overall likely pace here will see no more than a solid tempo set and in this 8 horse field we feel that the on pacers will have a slight advantage under the suggested pace scenario, the rage in betting is Rachel Alexandra but at the prepost price of 1.60 or 3/5 there is absolutely no value to be had and on the B-side of the coin is another equally impressive last start winner who is better drawn and likely for a similar good on pace trip in the form of Gabby's Golden Gal and she is the one we have a distincxt leaning to here at the value price of 10/1 prepost. Gabby's Golden Gal comes into this 4th up from a spell now at absolute peak fitness on the back of last start rounding out a strong preparation for this major assignment by winning in $200K stakes company by 13l in a field of 6. She dictated a below par tempo that day and was slightly flattered by the 13l margin but bottom line is she set the pace and then relaxed well before showing a blistering turn of foot around the bend to straighten 6l clear and then widened the margin another 7l in the stretch with a strong one paced grinding display. Furthermore she hit the lone strongly suggesting there was still scope for more. She is by the sire of the moment in the form of Medaglia D'oro out of an Ashkalani mare giving it the proven and successful Sadler's Wells * Danzig cross 3*3 in its pedigree. She is drawn better than Rachel Alexandra and is likely to get a softer trip and work less early as they will both go forward.

1st - No4 Gabby's Golden Gal
2nd - No6 Rachel Alexandra
3rd - No5 Justwhistledixie
.
Churchill Downs R10 American Turf Stakes G3 $150K 1m1/16th - overall this looks a slightly below par field for G3 level, the pace scenario looks likely to only be average at best but more likely slightly below par, decided to lean towards the lightly raced import galloper Battle Of Hastings who is having its 4th USA start for the ultra smart Mullins yard, formerly raced in The UK winning 2 from 5 in strong races at Newmarket and Doncaster, has won its last two starts on end inc 2 back in G3 company over the short 6.5f trip when closed with big pars in deep stretch chasing down a slow pace to win by 1.5l, hit the line very strongly that day suggesting has further scope for improvement over longer trips, franked that theory next start scoring in $100K stakes company over a mile, looks likely to reach G2 level over this trip and on that basis is clearly a level above the foes it faces here, well bred for turf racing by Royal Applause out of the Night Shift mare Subya who has produced 8 winners from 9 starters including 2 stakes winners and 5 turf winners. Best of the rest is Stormalory.

1st - No3 Battle Of Hastings
2nd - No1 Stormalory
3rd - No6 Bittel Road

Churchill Downs R9 Alysheba Stakes G3 $150K 1m1/16th - shapes as an overly average affair for Grade 3 status and the pace will play a critical part in determining the winner, Macho Again is drawn down on the fence and last start scored in G2 company coming from well off the pace but was flattered by a fast tempo set on the front end, that was his first win since the Jim Dandy back at Saratoga in July where he was also benifited by a fast early pace, he wont get the same luxury here, preference is for Cool Coal Man who is by the hot young sire Mineshaft out of the Rubiano mare Coral Sea, he is likely to go forward from the 4 alley and either colead or dictate solo on the front end under likely slow pars, last start was bitterly unlucky when run down close home finishing 2nd btn 0.5l in Grade 3 company over 1m1/8th, drops back to 1m1/16th and is fitter for that run and with the likely slow tempo is primed for this now, the one who is likely to most trouble it is the Thunder Gulch 6yo Dr Pleasure who is a winner its last two on end but has to work slightly from a wider gate to take up its customary on pace position and rises in class off an Optional Claiming win at Gulfstream Park last start.

1st - No4 Cool Coal Man
2nd - No8 Dr Pleasure
3rd - No1 Macho Again

Three High Class Group 1 Races Highlight Flemington Card

Flemington plays host to 3 Group 1 feature races on Saturday including The Newmarket over 1200m for the sprinters, The Australian Guineas over 1600m for the 3yos and The Australian Cup over 2000m for the stayers. We will preview each of these races below including the major seen chances from our assessments including detailed written analysis along with suggested exotic combination betting.

G1 Newmarket Handicap - 1200m 3yo+, $1,000,000 purse

Very open affair and enough depth in the market to back 3 runners here for a result across the race, slight leaning towards Burdekin Blues on top but as stated back all 3 for a result across the race, place punters stick with Burdekin Blues.

14:35 Flemington R6 No11 Burdekin Blues (1) - comes into this 3rd up from a spell and very well suited here on the back on an authorative 2.3l win in Group 2 company at Rosehill, form refs through Hurried Choice 3rd that day put it in this up to its ears, even better when the sting is out of the track and on rain effected ground, 3 seen leaders engaged will see minor pressure develop but has a high cruising speed and should handle it, will be the one they have to run down in deep stretch, first time down the Flemington straight the biggest query, drawn the middle of a large field with experienced hoop Larry Cassidy engaged so should have option to lead on whatever side of track it chooses bias likely to be evident by that stage of the day, the one to beat.

14:35 Flemington R6 No21 Time Thief (1) - very well bred lightly raced improver by Redoute's choice out of Procrastinate who comes into this 3rd up from a spell now at peak fitness, last start finished 3rd to Apache Cat at Group 1 level, not disgraced start prior defeated the above average Fravashi, racing style perfectly suited and only start over this track and distance got nosed out by Aichi in 3yo G3 company having mere 2nd career start, racing style suits as it will get cover tracking the leaders and drawn from the 11 alley likely to follow Burdekin Blues to the same side of the track, goes well on dead ground, ticks a lot of boxes and subject to considerable improvement on exposed form being so lightly raced.

14:35 Flemington R6 No22 Aichi (1) - comes into this 3rd up from a spell on the back of a workman like effort last start scoring over 1200m at Caulfield, deceivingly good effort with sectional matching those ran in the Oakliegh Plate that day, last prep knocked off Time thief at level weights over this track and distance and totally franked that form next start when 2nd to Sunburnt Land, gets in 0.5kg below Time thief here but drawn the 3 alley and depending upon bias may prove a bonus or negative, not as many options where to go in the run but is likely to get a bit further back than Time thief and will have to run bot it and Burdekin Blues down in deep stretch, minor query with the sting out of the ground but has serious claims on exposed form, especially at the big double figure odds, warrants respect.

Exotic Combinations - Flemington R6 Quinella - 11 with 17,21,22

G1 Australian Guineas - 1600m 3yo SW, $750,000 purse

The pace scenario is critical here with a likely slow tempo to develop, our view is that the market order is totally wrong creating enough value to back three at decent odds which are all outside of the top 3 in the order of betting on Friday morning. Once again like The Newmarket back all 3 for a result across the race. Place punters can confidently stick with the rapidly improving Huxssen.

15:20 Flemington R7 No12 Huxssen (1) - lightly raced improver and well bred by Hussonet out of the Diesis mare Musical Tones suggesting is bred for this trip and further as does racing style, comes into this 3rd up from a spell and flying now ready to hit a new career peak on the back of a super impressive effort last start against decisively weaker when scoring by 2.8l over 1400m at Sandown, came from last with a sensational turn of foot to win going away, still very strong on the line and hard held, sure to appreciate the big Flemington layout and will be closing hardest in deep stretch, pace scenario is against it but the brilliant turn of foot it possesses and the big Flemington track both play right into its hands, serious claims.

15:20 Flemington R7 No3 Dr Doute's (1) - very well bred by Redoute's Choice out of the Dr Grace mare No Limit, has been well below par 2 runs this prep but gets blinkers again which may see it race closer to a very slow pace or even lead here, go on effort end of last prep winning over this track and distance in Group 3 company defeating Lucky thunder 0.2l with further good margins back through the field adding good depth and merit, classy type ready to refind best form 3rd up, likely good double figure odds and warrants respect.

15:20 Flemington R7 No10 Eagle Falls (1) - well bred type by Hussonet out of the Desert King mare Desina and comes into this having mere 5th career start and 4th up at peak fitness for this assignment, signalled intentions 1st up from a spell winning by 7.5l at Morphettville, form refs through the btn brigade suggest it is well up to Group level on that run and franked that last start when 2nd to Pre Eminence over 1600m at Moonee Valley, sure to appreciate the bigger layout here over the M Valley layout, will also race closer to the pace, warrants respect in a very open affair.

Exotic Combinations - Flemington R7 Quinella - 3,10,12

G1 Australian Cup - 2000m 3yo+ WFA, $1,000,000 purse

Our confidence in this G1 is not as high as the other 2 Group 1 races on the card but the value factor about the two elects below is hard to ignore, both warrant respect and deserve specking at the double figure odds available.

16:05 Flemington R8 No1 Niconero (1) - comes into this 3rd up from a spell on the back of scoring in Group 1 company last start over 1600m when ran down Alamosa and Light Fantastic in deep stretch, hit the line strongly suggesting capable of taking the step up in trip and handling the 2000m here, banking on Road to Rock taking on Theseo on the front end producing an honest tempo and hopefully Theseo wont get cheap sectionals, form refs back through Maldivian suggest Niconero is capable of matching it with Theseo here and with the vast difference in market prices of 2.20 Theseo to 11.00 Niconero in early betting this shapes as the value option, enough to warrant respect at a price, confidence not great but at the price worth specking this one to roll Theseo.

16:05 Flemington R8 No12 Pre Eminence (1) - stretches out to 2000m here which looks its optimum trip and likely to race closer to the pace under the likely even tempo that will develop unless Road To Rock decides to apply the pressure to Theseo, either way should get the drop on the two of them, very good merit associated to win 2 back when only 2nd up over the 1600m trip scoring in Group 2 company at Moonee Valley, better suited here over the big Flemington layout and has the most scope for improvement out of these, very well bred by Encosta De Lago out of the Silver Hawk mare Lady Silver Hawk suggesting this trip totally suits, end of last prep made big headway in deep stretch chasing home Rebel Raider and Whobegotyou in the Victorian Derby when 3rd, should have finished closer to the first 2 home that day, worth specking along with the top elect Niconero for a result across the race against the short price favorite Theseo.

Exotic Combinations - Flemington R8 Quinella - 1 with 4,8,12

Posted: 2.18am, Friday 6 March, 2009.

Skate Into a Nice Double On Thursday

An interesting scenario is set to develop at Ballarat on Thursday for the Freedman yard in Race 5 and 6. Three time stakes winner producing broodmare Skating (At Talaq) has the Exceed And Excel colt Petrenko going around in Race 5 on the back of breaking its maiden last start whilst in Race 6 her very smart daughter Skates (Danehill) has the Fusaichi Pegasus colt Captain Coltish going around. Both are very serious hopes.

Skating nicks sensationally to Danehill line stallions as seen with Skates herself being by Danehill whilst Skates under the top notch Mr Prospector stallion Fusaichi Pegasus obviously nicks well as expected being Mr Prospector over Danehill 2 generations back to produce the dual winner Captain Coltish.

Skating was a 6 time Group winner, twice at G1 level, twice at G2 level and twice at G3 level, she has already produced 3 stakes winners including 2 by Redoute's Choice (Danehill) in the form of Bradbury's Luck and Murtajill. Skates has already produced 1 stakes winner in the form of Juste Momente (Giant's Causeway) who was a dual stakes winner including once at G1 level. Unfortunately Juste Momente died in August 2008 robbing the emerging female family of another potential high class producer.

Petrenko and Captain Coltish look to have very bright futures for the Freedman yard and we can only expect them both to keep on improving significantly with both being so lightly raced. Both can be backed on Thursday with decent confidence.

Posted: 2.23am, Wednesday 25 February, 2009.

Caulfield Preview including Oakleigh Plate

Over the course of Friday we will be updating a brief preview of all the races for Caulfield on Saturday.

Caulfield R1 - Aichi is the obvious class runner, didn't fire 1st up at Listed level as a 2.70 favorite, drops sharply in class, no value prepost at 1.60 in this despite class edge, minor query around that 1st up failure, should bounce back but the query is still niggling, enough to walk away from an odds on quote, non betting affair!

Caulfield R2 - Two major seen chances here who are both suited under the pace scenario in the form of Damesfly and Vienesse, now to line these two up, Damesfly lightly raced resuming having 4th start, won last time out at Group 3 level keeping unbeaten record in tact, Impressive Eagle 2nd that day was 3rd the start prior to Dan Baroness finishing 1.7l in front of Viennese, Damselfly gets in 2kg below Viennese here at the weights as a further advantage, scope for more improvement that Viennese who has had 8 starts compared to Damselfly 3 starts. Damesfly looks the one, anything better than 2.70 shapes as good value for a horse that looks a potential Group 2 winner on the make, hard to make that claim about the others in this field!

Caulfield R3 - Interesting affair with the proven Group 1 winner Gallica looking to refind form here 2nd up on the back of a disappointing effort when resuming, got too far back last start and simply didn't come on, obviously much better than that run suggested and fitter 2nd up going to 1600m, the same distance it strung 4 win on end over last prep including G2 and G1 scores, easily held Romneya and Sparks Fly 4th and 5th winning the Thousand Guineas last prep, Gallica will track Gold Water and Rapid Sensation in 3rd and be a lot closer to the pace than it was 1st up, Oliver will ensure that happens. It ticks the most boxes and is likely to drift in the market somewhat on its 1st up defeat, realistically anything better than 4.00 is good value about this proven type.

Caulfield R4 - This shapes as an overly weak G2 affair considering the exposed class of most of these and the current form they are in, the pace scenario will be critical to a lot of these with a slow tempo predicted it is Theseo who will be best suited as the likely leader with a soft trip / no pressure, 2 starts ago won The G1 Mackinnon over Barbaricus with good margins further back adding depth and merit to the win, ran a bolter 1st up when 3rd to Maldivian over 1400min the CF Orr Stakes btn 1.1l, doing best work on the line suggesting the step to 1800m totally suits, the major query runner is the other class runner Master O'Reilly but it has nowhere near the upside of Theseo and has to come from off the pace in a slowly run affair. Theseo deserved favourite, 2.80 prepost odds looks about the right mark, be happy if you get 3.00 or 2/1.

Caulfield R5 - Looks the most open race on the card so far, the pace scenario suggests at even tempo where the on pace runners will have a distinct advantage, the 4 major hopes shapes as Von Costa De Hero, Fight And Defend, Heart Of Dreams and Iamzeus, we are prepared to rule a line through Nicconi, Dr Doute's Fravashi and Handsupfordetroit for varying reasons, of the 4 left it is Von Costa De Hero who is the most proven, it is 3rd up from a spell now at peak fitness on the back of a very strong effort last time when 5th btn 2.3l behind Maldivian against older horses in the G1 C.F. Orr Stakes, takes a marked drop in class back to this average 3yo Group 2, it also gets a softish on pace trip from the good 4 alley with C Williams booked, it represents the major elect in our eyes. There is enough depth in the market to back two horses for a result across the race here. Gai Waterhouse ships in with Fight And Defend who is 1st up from a spell on the back of two good trial wins in Sydney, very well bred by Encosta De Lago out of the top class producer Steamheat, last prep it won 2 on end then next start finished a close up 3rd to Predatory Pricer in the Gloaming Stakes at Group 3 level, a big effort considering that was only its 4th career starts, it draws a bad gate here but is likely to go forward and cross to lead without working too hard early as one of only 2 noted leaders engaged, its trial form suggests it has come on significantly since spelling and Waterhouse knows how to win in Melbourne now suggesting she is bringing the right horses down, this looks another well placed Waterhouse raider and may be a big quote. Von Costa De Hero is value at 4.50 and Fight And Defend is value at 8.00, both will easily reach their quotes allowing you to back both, Fight And Defend more likely to be around 18/1 to 25/1, excellent value.

Caulfield R6 - Fist Of Fury does look superbly placed here 1st up from a spell with only 52.5kg but the big query for us is the 15 alley it has drawn, there is every chance it will get caught wide with no cover in midfield, the other very well weighted 3yo is Wilander who despite being drawn in 10 does look one of the best suited on pace types as most of the other significant speed is drawn outside it including Swiss Ace and Lucky Secret, 1st up last start Wilander finished 4th Scenic Blast btn 1.4l in The Lightning and looked a bit one paced in deep stretch but it led under a fast tempo that day and finished clearly best of the on pacers, very good hidden merit, 2nd up fitter now suits, 2 starts ago knocked off Lucky Secret over 1000m at Caulfield winning the G2 Schillachi Stakes, Red Element gets in well weighted and looks a big improver on its 1st up win when closing with big pars to win over this track and distance at Listed level, it is likely to get the run of the race from the 4 alley with Boss engaged, a crucial factor, Zizou has been bought back from the breeding barn and is 1st up for the astute David Hayes at a massive price prepost of 150/1, remember it finished 2nd in The Golden Slipper to Forensics and gets Winkers re-applied here, deserves minor specking on those factors alone. Wilander, Red Element as the major two to back with a minor speck on Zizou should round things out nicely. Very tough race, confidence not great but value is good.

Caulfield R7 - Going to start by saying that Real Saga based on its last start win looks a very serious race horse and on bare form well above the foes it encounters here. Now 3rd up from a spell this son of Tale Of The Cat comes into this on the back of a dominant effort last start making it 3 from 3 winning the Blue Diamond Prelude by 3l over the debut Listed winner Reward For Effort with a further 3l margin back to the smart Starspangledbanner in 3rd, the time recorded was 4l quicker than Rostova's time and exposed form refs out of the race give it a 4l advantage over Rostova, merit on win confirmed, the only serious query for us is Starspangledbanner who may get it soft in front, it will be the one to run down, speck it at odds along with having a serious go at Real Saga for a result across the race. Real Saga should be 2.50, 3.40 available, great value, get stuck into it, Starspangledbanner should be 8.00, 21.00 is easily available, nibble at it!

Caulfield R8 - The equal topweights Mentality and Swick get into this race very well placed both dropping on exposed class to Group 3 level here on the back of solid form against stronger, Mentality is 2nd up and better suited after last time out only btn 2.9l by Burdekin Blues over 1200m in the expressway Stakes G2, he was making solid headway in deep stretch suggesting it is looking for this trip now. Swick is also 2nd up on the back of only being btn 1.5l in the Lightning Stakes G1 last start over 1000m, big merit coming from the back, will totally love the 1400m here, 2 back was a Group 1 winner in the VRC Classic at Flemington during the Melbourne Cup carnival. Class will prevail with one of these two saluting under the suitable conditions, minor leading towards Swick, back both for a result across the race, both are currently 8/1 or 9.00, value about each is $5.50 Swick and $6.00 Mentality in what looks a definite 2 horse war, potentially the best value betting race on the card in terms of overall confidence so far.

Caulfield R9 - Fairly open race with most of the exposed main form revolving around Annesong, of that exposed form Prima Nova makes appeal off that form lineafter closing hard for 3rd last start behind Annesong in Group 3 company and is sure to appreciate the step to 1400m here, the big query runner is the proven South African Group 1 winner Dane Julia, 1st up here for the astute Freedman yard she comes off strong form last prep when only 1.8l behind Mimi Lebrock in the Lets Elope Stakes at Group 3 level over 1400m at Flemington and then next start only 1.7l off Tuesday Joy at Group 2 level, this race today looks easier than those races and 1st up over 1400m suggests Freedman has it primed, slight leaning towards Dane Julia at the current 9.00 on offer but back both with the other being Prima Nova at 6.50 currently on offer, confidence not overly high so keep outlays minimal across the race.

Jockey Challenge Estimated Points, Selections and Value Market Prices - updating......
C Brown - 3,1,2,3    = 9pts = 5.80
D Oliver - 3,3,1,2      = 9pts = 5.80
K McEvoy - 3,2,2,1   = 8pts = 6.60
D Dunn - 2,1,2          = 5pts = 10.00
N Rawiller - 3,1        = 4pts = 13.00
V Duric - 2,2            = 4pts = 13.00
C Williams - 3           = 3pts = 17.00
M Rodd - 3               = 3pts = 17.00
N Hall - 1,2               = 3pts = 17.00
S Arnold - 1             = 1pts = 50.00
C Newitt - 1             = 1pts = 50.00
G Boss - 1               = 1pts = 50.00
D Brereton - 1         = 1pts = 50.00
S King - 1                = 1pts = 50.00

*Total 53 points issued.

3 serious chances in the Jockey Challenge being Corey Brown, Damien Oliver and Kerrin McEvoy, more to come once Jockey Challenge markets are finalized on Saturday morning.............

Saturday morning markets have McEvoy @ 2.20, Oliver @ 3.30 and Brown @ 8.00. Clearly before the first race Corey Brown is the value commodity at 8.00 on a true market quote of 5.80 as established in our initial assessment above, that represents an overlay of 2.20 or just below 50%. Great value to be had then about Corey Brown but with McEvoy and Oliver also very high up in the points keep outlays before the first race minimal. Also have a minor bet on Dwayne Dunn who is available at 14.00 and we have him as a 10.00 chance. C Williams is the other one worth having a nibble at currently 31.00 on offer and assessed as a 17.00 chance.

Jockey Bets - Before R1
C Brown = $150 @ 8.00
D Dunn = $50 @ 14.00
C Williams = $50 @ 17.00

Further jockey betting updates after 1st race has finished.

McEvoy won the 1st race on Aichi as expected picking up 3pts, he is now into 1.90 to win the Jockey Challenge, the market has reacted to that win but he was expected by us to pick up 3pts in that race so no real reason to shorten his price in real markets, he performed as expected. Brown is now out to 9.00, even better value and he didnt have a ride in the 1st race so he potential score is not effected, have another nibble at him at the 9.00.

Jockey Bets - Before R2
C Brown = $50 @ 9.00

Further jockey betting updates after 2nd race has finished.

Great result with the 2nd race after Damselfly scored with Brown aboard, he picked up the 3pts we expected he would from this race. Also of important note K McEvoy missed the 2 pts we expected him to get on Viennesse which is also very good as we have basically bet against him at the short price. Corey Brown moves right into serious contention with a 5pt swing. He picked up 3 whilst main rival McEvoy missed an expected 2.

No bets to be placed before 3rd race.

Exotic Betting
Caulfield R2 - Quinella - 4,8
Caulfield R3 - Quinella - 1 with 2,3
Caulfield R4 - Quinella - 3 with 1,9
Caulfield R5 - Quinella - 1 with 6,10,12
Caulfield R6 - Trifecta - (Boxed) 3,9,13,14,16,18
Caulfield R7 - Quinella - 1 with 2,9
Caulfield R8 - Quinella - 1,2
Caulfield R9 - Quinella - 4,5

Posted: 10.55am, Friday 20 February, 2009.
Last Updated: 1.12pm Saturday 21 February, 2009.

Australia Stakes A Non-Betting Affair

The feature race from Moonee Valley on Saturday is the Group 1 Australia stakes where a field of 7 lines up including "the people's horse" Weekend Hussler, potential top liner Time Thief and the out of sorts top class sprinter Apache Cat. Those 3 dominate the betting with Weekend Hussler an odds on favourite.

Currently with bookmakers Weekend Hussler is well into the red trading around the 1.70 mark. We have been through the form of this race in minute detail and Weekend Hussler on the back of his slashing 1st up run in the Lightning when 4th to Scenic Blast does look the winner stepping to 1200m.

Under our confidence ratings scale we have him outlined as a level (2) bet meaning a price of 2/1 or 3.00 is about the expected value mark. Bookies will risk him closer to post time and he may get out to around even money but bottom line is even at that short quote the value is non-existent.

He looks the winner as stated but with no value being on offer it is best to steer clear and make this feature Group 1 a non betting race from a punting perspective.

Posted: 12.40pm, Friday 13 February, 2009.

Back The Newmarket Winner Early At 40/1

The Newmarket Handicap is due to run on Saturday 7 March at Flemington and a major pointer to that race will come through Race 4 from Caulfield on Monday 26 January when Typhoon Tracy resumes from a spell having its 2nd career start, firstly we think she is a near moral when she resumes on Monday as a 7/4 elect but the real value to be had is by backing her to win The Newmarket Handicap at the current odds of 40/1 that are on offer. By reading our preview of the race she resumes in on Monday you will get a good pointer to why we want to be on her to win the Newmarket. If she wins as expected on Monday she will shorten considerably for The Newmarket and the degree of shortening will be gauged by how impressive she is 1st up. If she blows her foes away on Monday you may be looking at anything as short as 10/1 but more likely around the 20/1 mark. By taking the 40/1 on offer now through www.betchoice.com you will be putting yourself in a very good position come March 7.

Our senior Melbourne analyst described her debut win as potentially the best he had seen on a Melbourne City track in the last 15 years. Read on below for the finer points.

Caulfield R4 No5 Typhoon Tracy (3) - comes into this having 2nd career start and is 1st up from a spell on the back of breaking its maiden in emphatic fashion by 5.5l over 1200m at M Valley in $60K maiden company, crossed to lead then duelled on the front end under a tight hold with one other through the middle stages, given reign midbend and skipped clear quickly, under a hold virtually entire stretch and still very strong on the line, looked a world beater and form refs through the btn brigade suggest true merit and as a minimum on that run could have won on debut at Listed level, sure to be stronger since spelling and likely to improve significantly again here, very well bred by Red Ransom out of the top class Last Tycoon mare Tracy's Element, a 4 time sprint G1 winner in South Africa who is also the dam of the stakes winning Red Element who is also by Red Ransom, potentially a top class sprinting filly on the make, this a stepping stone to races like The Newmarket and Oakleigh G1 double, very hard to beat here.

Posted: 1.20pm, Sunday 25 January, 2009.

Update: Typhoon Tracy now 17/1 for The Newmarket on March 7

Markets released at the completion of racing on Monday 26 January from Caulfield have totally confirmed our thoughts regarding Typhoon Tracy who is now into 17/1 from 40/1 after an impressive 2.5l win at Listed level on Monday. As stated above we were of the opinion depending upon how well she won on Monday that she would firm considerably in markets for The Newmarket, 17/1 still represents good value and now with confidence even higher on the back of her Monday listed win those who were smart enough to heed our advice and take the 40/1 would be rubbing their hands together.

Posted: 4.50pm, Tuesday 27 January, 2009.