Gold Coast R7 - 1200m Magic Millions 2yo Classic $2,000,000

The $2M Magic Millions 2yo Classic is run at The Gold Coast on Saturday 9 January and shapes as a very good value betting affair, read our detailed betting preview below.

Initially we start by listing our top 7 rated runners in order, THIS IS NOT THE PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER, read on further below for final predicted finishing order.

Top 7 Rated in order
1st No13 Ambers Waltz
2nd No1 Brightexpectations
3rd No8 Ebony Rock
=4th No7 Startsmeup, No11 Triple Crown, No14 Red Belly Black
7th No9 Military Rose

Pace = Solid


Ambers Waltz - the clear top rated 0.7l infront of Bright Expectations but likely to get caught deep facing the breeze tracking the speed if it goes forward as it did on debut but more likely to go back from the wide gate and be ridden for luck, barrier a major concern and as favorite there is enough value around the other top raters to find something to beat it due to the bad barrier, too short at 4.20 in early betting to have it on top as the major pick due to the alley.

Brightexpectations - clear 2nd top rated coming in rating 1.3l infront of the 3rd rated horse Ebony Rock, also drawn a very wide gate but is a speed horse and will go forward, the pace is likely to be solid so it will need to have luck crossing them early but if it gets across and finds cover stalking the leaders it shapes as the one they have to run down in deep stretch, booking of top hoop Nash Rawiller adds confidence, well bred by More Than Ready who knows how to produce a MM winner and top class juvenile as he has proven the last few years, at the prepost price of 14.00 on offer it is definitely a bettable commodity.

Ebony Rock - one of two very serious chances for the Hayes yard along with Red Belly Black, drawn superbly down in the 2 alley to get a gun trip back off the pace on the rail and is suited by the solid tempo, it will be closing hard at the business end and only rates 2kg below Brightexpectations so if Brightexpectations doesn't get cover from the wide alley there is every chance this one could get home over the top of it and at 26.00 in early markets is worth backing as well.

Red Belly Black - the other Hayes runner and is only having 2nd start here, has big scope for further improvement on debut run, only won debut effort at Flemington by tight margins but came from last over 1100m to wear down the 3 on pace horses who finished 2nd 3rd and 4th, very good merit, form ref through I'm Posh who finished 5th puts it infront of Ebony Rock on one form reference, drawn a good gate to get also a very good trip from off the pace, once again at a good double figure price of 17.00 in early betting so it too can be backed to win along with Brightexpectations and Ebony Rock for a result across the race, looks to have the best chance of the equal 4th rated runners noted above.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER

1st. Brightexpectations
2nd. Ebony Rock
3rd. Red Belly Black
4th. Ambers Waltz

WIN BETTING:
3 units Brightexpectations @ 14.00,
2 units Ebony Rock @ 26.00,
2 units Red Belly Black @ 17.00,
total outlay 7 units,
minimum return 34 units,
maximum return 52 units.

PLACE BETTING:
5 units Ebony Rock @ 7.20

LAY BETTING:
Best Lay is Spirit Of Boom (max lay price 11.00),
additional lay is Military Rose (max lay pricve 8.00),
both can be laid under their max lay prices with good confidence.

EXOTIC BETTING
Quinella - 1,8,14
Trifecta - 1st 1,8,14 / 2nd & 3rd 1,7,8,11,13,14

Good luck and happy punting.

Gold Coast R1 - 1200m Magic Millions Maiden Plate $100,000

Top 5 Rated in order
1st No13 Speeding To Win
2nd No2 Mailbox
3rd No21 Fatherson (5th Emerg), unlikely to start
4th No12 Solid Effort
5th No5 Fast Lover

Pace = Average


Speeding To Win - very well bred type by Redoutes Choice who comes into this 4th up from a spell at peak fitness and likely to get a near perfect trip from a good gate on the front end under an even tempo, both jockey (Nash Rawiller) and trainer (Johhn O'Shea) are in hot form currently, on debut last prep finished 0.2l 2nd to Winter King over 1000m at Randwick on heavy going, form refgs out of that race put it on top here including line through Deer Valley who last start raced against the fixed odds favorite here Fast LOver since shipping to Qld giving Speeding To Win a clear 4kg advantage at the weights on that exposed form ref through Deer Valley, ticks clearly the most boxes out of this lot and at 4.60 fixed odds is good value, anything above 3.50 is an acceptable price.

Mailbox - another very well bred commodity by Encosta De Lago out of the Danehill mare Email Me who herself won 2 from 10 starts, 3rd dam is non other than Biscalowe who is the dam of Golden Slipper winner Marauding and the dual Danehill listed winner Springsteen, positive nicking reference for dam Email Me, 1st up from a spell here on the back of a very good trial effort when 2nd btn 1.3l by Electric Dreams at Warwick Farm, form refs through those finishing further back suggest it is ready to hit a new career peak here, if so is in this up to its ears, blinkers come off 1st time amongst a multitude of other gear changes, minor query under the pace scenario as it is likely to go back to worse than midfield in a race where on pacers will have the advantage and is drawn slightly wide out in the 11 alley but has the potential class to overcome that factor, if Speeding To Win fails to fire this may be the one that gets the chocolates at a decent price 12.00 currently on offer fixed odds, back this aswell as Speeding To Win for a result across the race, they look to have it between them.

Fatherson - Hayes runner having 3rd career start and wears blinkers 1st time but unlikely to get a start being the 5th emergency in this field, only rates 1.5kg below Speeding To Win (form line through Streetcar Magic back to Canali back to Speeding To Win) and is drawn a very good alley to get a good on pace trip stalking the leaders, if it gets a start will shake the hell out of this at a massive price and must be backed, 19.00 fixed odds currently but likely to start longer, it will replace Mailbox as the 2nd elect if it gets a start but that is very unlikely.

PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER

1st Speeding To Win
2nd Mailbox
3rd Solid Effort
4th Fast Lover
Special note for Fatherson, goes into 2nd position if it gets a start.

WIN BETTING:
5 units Speeding To Win @ 4.60
2 units Mailbox @ 12.00
total outlay 7 units
minimum return 23 units
maximum return 24 units

PLACE BETTING:
4 units Mailbox @ 3.75

LAY BETTING:
No lay betting on this race

EXOTIC BETTING
Quinella - 13 with 2,12

Good luck and happy punting.

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Marathon, 3yo+, 1m6f, $500K Purse]
R3 No6 Mastery (2) - hard to go past the chances of the prepost favorite from the very hot Godolphin yard here, last start scored over 15f at Doncaster 0.7*1.8l annexing the G1 St Leger Stakes, looks a strong form reference for what it takes on here with 2nd home Kite Wood winning its 2 previous starts by good decisive margins in Group 3 company and 3rd home Monitor Closely scoring a 4.5l G2 win the start prior, drops back to 14f here and on the back of being strong over 15f last time out will have no problems with the trip, also won the Italian Derby in fine style at G2 level in a field of 21 horses by 1.5l 4 starts prior, overall this race is not of true G1 calibre but this lightly raced stayer has shown the form to suggest it is at that level, bred to stay the trip by Sulamani out of the Diesis mare Moyesii who is also the dam of KIrklees a dual Group winner this season and an 8f G1 winner at 2, currently being bet at 15/8 with bookmakers and 3.20 to 3.30 on exchanges which is about the price required to make it a decent value bet.

Mastery winning the St Leger.......


Mastery winning the Italian Derby......


Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, 2yof, 1m, $1000K Purse]
R4 No11 Junia Tepzia (1) - open affair with 5 seen chances, decided to lean towards the well bred turf horse Junia Tepzia who has done all of its racing in Italy at San Siro and Merano, in short career has recorded 2 wins from 2 starts including last start at Listed level over 8f in the Premio Coolmore stakes scoring by 3.3l with further big margins back through the field, settled on pace tracking the clear leader before quickly putting the issue beyond doubt showing a sharp turn of foot 1f out and was eased close home, could have won by further, form refs back through the beaten brigade suggest the win was well above the advertised class, subsequently snapped up by astute connections (Team Valor), was only a 3000GNS Tattersals purchase as a yearling in 2008 but is well bred by Rock Of Gibraltar out of a half sister to Footstepsinthesand (leading successful young sire in Europe by Giant's Causeway who was undefeated in 3 career starts including the 2000 Guineas), drawn a wide gate but the pace scenario suggests it should be able to cross and race on pace without working too hard early with good natural early speed, big scope for further improvement, looks G1 quality on the make, booking of Kieren Fallon adds confidence, other major hopes revolve around Lillie Langtry and Rose Catherine who was super impressive breaking its maiden by 8l at Belmont 1st up last start making all under a solid tempo but was slightly weak on the line suggesting it may struggle to get the 8f here, Junia Tepzia ticks the most boxes and at 10/1 with bookmakers and 14.00 or better on the exchanges currently represents the value option, anything better than 5/1 or 6.00 is good value so this means simply it is big overs and can not be ignored in betting.

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2yof, 1m110y, $2000K Purse]
R5 No6 Connie And Michael (1) - shapes as a race of three major chances and enough depth in the market to back two of them for a result across the race, leant towards this lightly raced improver slightly on top, comes into this having 2nd career start on the back of breaking maiden status by a widening 7.7l over 7f at Keeneland, made all on the front end straightening into the stretch run 3l clear and extended willingly to the wire, hit the line very strongly suggesting the step up in trip suits, pace scenario suits again here with only 1 other seen leader engaged, scope for big improvement coming into this having only 2nd career start, the one they have to run down in deep stretch, very well bred by hot young sire Roman Ruler out of a Devil's Bag mare., currently available at 6/1 with bookmakers and better than 8.00 on exchanges, anything better than 9/2 is good value.

Connie And Michael winning on debut at Keeneland 17 Oct 09.....


R5 No7 Devil May Care (1) - comes into this undefeated winning 2 from 2 for the very astute Todd Pletcher yard, broke maiden impressively on debut by 4.7l at Saratoga over 6f on sloppy going showing a sharp turn of foot quickly putting the issue beyond doubt upon straightening, 2nd came out and won next start franking the form, this one also then came out and won next start in the G1 Frizette by 0.1l with defeating Awesome Maria putting 4.5l*12.5l back to 3rd and 4th in a totally dominant performance, form refs back through the btn brigade suggest merit associated was of true G1 quality and also suggests it has the edge over the market leaders on exposed form, very well bred by Malibu Moon out of a Red Ransom mare making it a half relation to the high class dual G2 winner Regal Ransom who won the UAE Derby in March 09 over Desert Party, likely for a near perfect trip tracking leaders with one of the runs of the race, will be closing hard with big pars in deep stretch, currently available at 7/1 with bookmakers and around 9.00 on exchanges, anything better than 11/2 is good value.

Devil May Care winning the G1 Frizette at Belmont 10 Oct 09.......



Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly & Mare Turf, 3yo+f&m, 1m2f, $2000K Purse]
R6 No6 Midday (3) - very hard to dismiss the chances of the European charge Midday here, comes into this on the back of finishing 1.5l 3rd to Shalanaya over 10f at Longchamp in the G1 Prix De L'Opera, hit the front 1f out that day then died on her run when fitness got the better of it, clearly finished best of the on pacers in a run full of good hidden merit considering it was coming off a 2 month break into the race, prior to that won the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood over 10f on soft going by 2.2l over Rainbow View who was only btn 1.2l by Goldikova the start prior (providing a good form ref to what is required to win this race) and then the start after was a 2l winner in the G1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown over Heaven Sent with a further 4l margin back to Again in 3rd once again providing a strong form ref back to Midday for this assignment, fitter now and likely to get a perfect trip on pace under a slow tempo Midday will prove very hard to run down in deep stretch here, very well bred by Oasis Dream out of the Kingmambo mare Midsummer who was a stakes winner herself from only 3 career starts and is a half sister to high class 10f-12f performer Elmaamul and Reams Of Verse (both dual G1 winners) along with 4 other lesser credentialed stakes performers, the only minor query comes from Pure Clan who was impressive last start scoring by 2.7l in the G1 Flower Bowl Invitational but that was on a soft rain effected track and it got a perfect trip tracking leaders that day and was accordingly fluked and flattered by the pace scenario, Midday very hard to beat here and anything better than 6/4 or 2.50 represents good value, currently being quoted at 11/4 with bookmakers and may touch slightly better odds on exchanges, either way very good value.

Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, 3yo+f&m, 7f, $1000K Purse]
R7 No2 Sara Louise (1) - another race with once again enough depth to back 2 runners for a result across the race, especially so considering we are opposing the 2 favorites in the market being Ventura and Informed Decision, the very hot Godolphin yard seems to hold the key to this race with their 2 engaged runners Sara Louise and  Seventh Street, leant towards Sara Louise on top who has the booking of stable top jockey Dettori which is a pointer in itself, comes into this having mere 7th career start, off the scene since November last year before 2 starts ago scoring 1st up over 6f at Saratoga in G3 company defeating Bold Union by 2l, improved again last start when nosed out by Indian Blessing over 7f at Belmont in the G2 Gallant Bloom handicap (Sara Louise had the tougher trip caught 3 and 4 deep the whole way whilst Indian Blessing got a dream split off the rail between horses into the stretch after tracking on the rail), put good gaps through the balance that day chasing home Indian Blessing and form refs out of that race compare favourably to Ventura and Informed Decision through numerous different lines, 3rd up now fitter ready to improve again, totally suited by the pace scenario with stable mate likely to set a fast tempo on the front end giving this one basically the run of the race tracking leaders from the good 2 alley, 4 starts ago as a 2yo defeated the super filly Rachel Alexandra over 8f at Churchill Downs with big margins further back through the field adding very good depth and merit to the form out of the race, she is in fact the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra who has gone on to take all before her winning her last 9 starts on end, very well bred by Malibu Moon out of the Mt Livermore mare Kings Lynn and was a $550K Fasig Tipton 2008 purchase before Godolphin snapped up her privately at the end of her 2yo season, currently being quoted at 8/1 with bookmakers and available at 10.00 on exchanges, happy to be on at anything above 11/2 as the major elect over stablemate Seventh Street which we also suggest backing.

Sara Louise unlucky 2nd to Indian Blessing in the G2 Gallant Bloom.....


Sara Louise winning 1st up after a 3 wide deep trip with no cover in the G3 Victory Ride....


R7 No8 Seventh Street (1) - ultra consistent type who has won 5 from 9 in its short career and never missed the board, last 4 efforts have all been in G1 contests over the extended 9f trip and racing style (leader) suits the drop back to 9f here, has finished either 2nd or 1st in each of those last 4 G1 contests never shirking the task with various form refs out of those races suggesting she is a true G1 performer and capable of figuring here, if she gets no pressure on the front end with superior seen early speed she will be the one they have to run down in deep stretch, very well bred by Street Cry out of the Meadowlake mare Holiday Runner who is also the dam of G2 placed 3yo of this season Reynaldothewizard, has to be backed as the 2nd elect here along with top pick Sara Louise, currently being quoted at 12/1 with bookmakers and available at 16.00 or better on exchanges, anything above 7/1 is value.

Seventh Street makes all over 9f to win by a widening 5l 4 starts ago in the G1 Apple Blossom.....


Seventh Street duels on the front end 2 wide then digs deep to win going away 2 starts ago in the G1 Go For Wand.....


Santa Anita (Oak Tree) [Breeders Cup Ladies Classic, 3yo+f&m, 1m1f, $2000K Purse]
R8 No1 Careless Jewel (2) - good quality race to finish the G1 races on the first day of the Breeders Cup, no less than 4 of these horses are capable of winning in G1 company but it is Careless Jewel who stands out the most and ticks the most boxes, came of age 3 starts ago winning the G2 Delaware Oaks by 7.2l over Malibu Prayer, totally franked that form 2 starts ago winning the G1 Alabama Stakes over 10f at Saratoga by 11l, pressed the coleader on the inside then quickly put paid to its foes when asked leading 2f out and widening the margin all the way to the line hitting the line very strongly, form refs out of that race suggest it is well above G1 level, winner now 5 from 6 in short career and well bred by the high class son of Pulpit, Tapit out of the Hennessy mare Sweet And Careless, tuned up for this last start with a 3.5l win at G2 level last start at Philadelphia Park, likely to get a soft trip on the front end and with superior closing pars in deep stretch will prove very difficult to run down, the only major query is the other market leader Music Note but under the pace scenario it will have to chase down Careless Jewel from midfield which is a very tough assignment for any horse, enough ticks to warrant decent support for Careless Jewel here to hold sway over Music Note at the business end, the others are merely making up the numbers, good value at 10/3 with bookmakers and around that same mark on exchanges, anything above 9/4 against this lot is good value.

Careless Jewel routing her rivals by 11l in the G1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga.....


More races to be added for Saturday.

The 2009 edition of The Melbourne Cup on paper shapes as one of the weakest version of recent times in terms of overall quality. Below we highlight the top 8 chances in the race and all the best betting advice for win betting, place betting, lay betting and exotic betting.

2009 Melbourne Cup (3200m G1 Hcp $5.5M purse) - The Contenders

No21 Shocking (G1+) - winner 2 from 2 on this track and came of age on Saturday winning the Lexus Stakes over 2500m at Flemington by 2.3l over Hume with a further 3l back to 3rd in a 15 horse field, totally dominant effort and a top class Melbourne Cup trial, got shuffled back rounding the bend then sprinted very quickly to put paid to its foes in a twinkling making very strong headway on the rail, eased close home but hit the line very strongly suggesting the step to 3200m will totally suit, prior to that was beaten twice by Alcopop but form refs out of the Lexus win suggests Shocking has improved markedly since then, those 2 prominent form refs come through Dandaad 10th behind Shocking and Hoorang 13th behind Shocking, both form refs give Shocking a 1.5-3.5kg pull at the weights over Alcopop on those form lines, Sterling Prince back in 5th behind Shocking also gives a good form ref to other major hopes Daffodil and Viewed suggesting Shocking also has those 2 easily covered at the weights, racing on the Saturday prior to the Melbourne Cup off a quick back up is a proven practice and that also suits Shocking, he is lightly raced in terms of being a staying prospect and has good scope for further improvement going to the 3200m, the alley is the biggest query facing this horse as he is drawn wide and there is not a lot of pace engaged, do not be surprised if Corey Brown goes forward and races closer to the pace, either way he has a sensational turn of foot and with only 51kg on his back will be the one they have to hold out in deep stretch.



No6 Roman Emperor (G1) - having its 6th start this preparation and last start finished 2nd in the Caulfield Cup btn 2.3l by Viewed, no doubt Viewed got the dream trip that day and all the luck in running whilst Roman Emperor got held up at a critical stage entering the straight and was entitled to finish a lot closer to Viewed that day, he is likely to get one of the runs of the race in a better than midfield position and will look the winner somewhere in the stretch, is Shocking gets no luck in running Roman Emperor will win the race but at the weights Shocking clearly has his measure.



No20 Daffodil (G1-) - also comes through the Caulfield Cup like Roman Emperor and gets in here well weighted with only 51.5kg, was making strong headway down the outside in the stretch run of the Caulfield Cup hitting the line very hard suggesting the step to 3200m totally suits, prior to that was an unlucky 4th behind Vosne Romanee in the Kelt Capital Stakes in New Zealand, came out and won the AJC Oaks at Randwick at the end of last preparation which is a strong traditional lead up pointer to Melbourne Cups of past years, drawn a wide gate which is no concern as it will go back and be ridden for luck, looks to be totally suited by the Flemington layout.



No1 Viewed (G1-) - no doubt this horse is a true G1 warrior as proven winning this race last year and the Caulfield Cup this year but is being asked to carry a record weight if it is to repeat last years success here, won the Caulfield Cup 2 starts ago and looked a world beater doing it but then looked very flat when a grinding 3rd in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday btn 2.4l by Scenic Shot and Miss Maren at WFA, admittedly was doing its best work on the line but form refs out of that WFA contest suggest it performed 8kg below the level it showed winning the Caulfield Cup, trained by master staying trainer Bart Cummings but simply the Mackinnon run and the big weight and the pace scenario are against it here, class will carry it a long way but not up to winning this year based on those factors.



No11 Alcopop (G2+) - started its racing career on Melbourne Cup day last year winning over 1200m at Morphettville and has won 4 from 4 this preparation including a 3.3l G2 score last start in the Herbert Power over 2400m at Caulfield defeating Shocking, Alcopop got the dream trip that day and Shocking tracked it into the race and suffered heavy contact at a vital stage when trying to make headway with Alcopop, has not raced since which is a query and Shocking has hit a new level and is rock hard fit on the back of winning the Lexus on Saturday as formlines out of that race prove, has claims but the unusual lead up is a big concern.



Outside place contenders in predicted finishing order: Allez Wonder (G2), Mourilyan (G2?), Changingoftheguard (G2?).

Predicted Finishing Order:

1st. Shocking (No21)
2nd. Roman Emperor (No6)
3rd. Daffodil (No20)
4th. Viewed (No1)
5th. Alcopop (No11)
6th. Allez Wonder (No22)
7th. Mourilyan (No5)
8th. Changingoftheguard (No23)

Win Betting: Back Shocking to win the race with good confidence, if he didn't have the bad barrier we would be happy to make him a 3/1 chance in this race, the bad barrier makes us mark him up as a 9/2 chance but he is still the clear top elect. Currently trading at 10/1 to 11/1 he represents very good value, outlay 4 units. The major danger is Roman Emperor and he is currently 17/2 to 9/1 in different markets which is still good value, we have him marked up as a 11/2 chance here, outlay 2 units as a secondary level bet if Shocking fails to fire.

Shocking - outlay 4 units @ 10/1 or 11.00
Roman Emperor - outlay 2 units @ 8/1 or 9.00

Place Betting: Shocking is outstanding value for place punters, currently on offer at 3/1 to 4/1 in different markets for the place, simply outlay with big confidence as this is the best bet of any in the Melbourne Cup, outlay 10 units.

Shocking - outlay 10 units @ 13/4 or 4.25

Lay Betting: With out top picks being the ones in the market it is difficult to find a big value lay, with confidence strong for us around the top 2 chances and Daffodil listed 3rd on our finishing order we have left the top 2 in the real betting markets out of the top 3 being Viewed and Alcopop, of these 2 Viewed is proven and has Bart Cumming in his corner and this means Alcopop as equal favourite on exchanges at 5.80 represents the value lay for us.

Exotic Betting: [Trifecta - 1st 6,20,21 / 2nd 1,6,11,20,21 / 3rd 1,5,6,11,20,21,22,23 (Total 72 combinations)] [Quinella 6,20,21 with 1,6,11,20,21 (9 combinations)]

As per last year we will be providing a detailed coverage of all stakes races across the 2 days of the Breeders Cup meeting to be run at Santa Anita (Oak Tree) in 2009. Race schedules are now set which we have listed below and come closer to race days we will be updating all of our previews here for one and all to follow.

BREEDERS' CUP RACE SCHEDULE

DATE	RACE	POST (PT)
11/6	Breeders' Cup Marathon	12:35 PM
11/6	Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf	1:08 PM
11/6	Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies	1:45 PM
11/6	Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf	2:23 PM
11/6	Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint	3:02 PM
11/6	Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic	3:45 PM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf	10:45 AM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint	11:23 AM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Sprint	12:10 PM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Juvenile	12:49 PM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Mile	1:28 PM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile	2:12 PM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Turf	2:57 PM
11/7	Breeders' Cup Classic	3:45 PM

Further updates to follow during the week......

Use the links below to access past feature pages

Features up to and including October 2009 - Click here